Countdown To Election '08

In less than 11 months, 328 days to be exact, millions of Americans, me included, will dutifully proceed to polling places in virtually every city, town, and village to purposefully execute one of the most solemn and celebrated of civic responsibilities. We will vote for, or against, and elect, the next Commander-in-Chief, the 44th President of the United States of America.

For residents of the Sunbelt Region, the Carolinas, and especially the Palmetto State, this past Sunday was a day that served to emphasize the coming drama in a special way. In what amounts to the crowing testament, thus far, of Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Illinois Senator, Barack Obama, the duo; trio really if you count Mrs. Obama – Michelle, came to William Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina to rock the vote.

Over the years, Oprah fans and observers have come to know and read Oprah’s favorite books, be gifted with Oprah’s favorite things, and this year the electorate will be afforded an opportunity to vote for Oprah’s favorite candidate, Barack Obama. Sunday’s mass rally attracted nearly 30,000 people. It was by a significant margin the largest event to date for the Senator and his campaign.

Presidential elections are routinely filled with an array of twists, turns, and high drama. Looking at a small subset of the field of candidates, and potential candidates vying for the democratic nomination, it is already clear ’08 will not prove to be the exception. Most polls show the top 3 contenders to be Senator Barack Obama, Illinois, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York, and John Edwards, former North Carolina Senator, not necessarily in that order.

In Iowa, where the January 3rd Caucuses will kick-off Campaign ’08, Obama recently held a slight, statistically insignificant, lead over Clinton, who held a similar lead over Edwards. In South Carolina, where the Democratic Primary is scheduled for January 26th, Clinton has led Obama, with Edwards trailing there as well.

In order to emerge as the Democratic Party nominee for president, the winner must garner a majority of the 4,046 delegate votes available. There are 56 democratic caucuses and primaries, including one for each of the 50 states, and Washington, DC, as well as one each for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and Democratic Voters Abroad.

There is a term used in chess, which may also apply to politics, called denouement. Loosely translated, it means the outcome or final resolution of a complex sequence of events, such as chess moves. It is an understatement to say, we have a ways to go before reaching the final resolution to Campaign ’08.

Each member of the triumvirate referenced above has some perceived edge, as well as liabilities that are sure to be highlighted during the Primary Season, and for the survivor elevated exponentially during the General Election. Let us consider the candidates, and a few of their strengths and weaknesses.

Senator Obama, who was born August 4, 1961 in Honolulu, Hawaii, established himself as a cogent communicator with a superbly delivered Keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and went on to win his maiden campaign for the United States Senate with a stunning 70% of the vote. He has proven to be a surprisingly adept and successful fund-raiser, and of course, as we know, he is Oprah’s favorite candidate! The Senator has greatly energized a large segment of the black electorate, and is expected to attract significant numbers of black voters.

Alternately, he is frequently characterized by his competitors and detractors as lacking experience. Expect this point to be made with increasing frequency, and ferocity as the campaign unfolds.

Senator Clinton, born October 26, 1947 in Chicago, Illinois, is the wife of former President Bill Clinton, and of course spent 8 years as The First Lady. She benefits from a large and seasoned network of party regulars who supported her husband in his stints as Arkansas Governor and two successful bids for the White House. Many will view Mrs. Clinton’s run as the natural evolution of former New York Representative Geraldine Ferraro’s run for Vice President, as Walter Mondale’s running mate during their ill-fated 1984 Campaign. However, in addition to enjoying a strong feminist base, Senator Clinton also expects to hold a strong appeal to black voters, challenging Obama in some circles in that regard.

On the flip side, despite her experience as a Washington-insider, her key role in the Clinton Administration will be viewed and exploited as a negative by many. Moreover, aside from any policy fallout; anticipate her role as the Number 1 FOB (Friend of Bill) to surface as fodder for attack.

Former Senator Edwards, born June 10, 1953 in Seneca, South Carolina, served one term as a United States Senator from North Carolina. He declined to seek reelection in order to run for President. In July 2004, John Kerry announced Edwards as his running mate. The two went on to lose to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in what would become Bush’s second term in office. Edwards currently serves as Director of the Center on Poverty, Work, and Opportunity, at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Law School. Of the three front-runners, He holds the distinction of having negotiated the rigors of the Democratic Primary as a candidate. Edwards’ work on issues of poverty and his moderate to liberal social agenda, pro Affirmative Action, but also pro Death Penalty, will be used to a leverage support.

Conversely, his ties to Senator Kerry and their failed bid, in the most recent 2004 Presidential Election, will be cited as a key negative. Also, like Obama, Edwards was a one-term Senator, whose lack of overall experience will be highlighted.

The choice to address only 3 contenders here, or a single Party, is not a tacit nod to any of those candidates, or that party, but a function of time and space. In other words, it would take much more of both to have done more. It is likely someone not in the top 3 will surge. Oh yeah, the other Party could also win it all.

I will offer one additional element of food for thought. Each of these candidates is a United States Senator, or former United States Senator. The last President elected while serving in the Senate was John Fitzgerald Kennedy, in 1960. The last former Senator elected President was Richard Milhous Nixon, in 1968, and 1972. Depending upon how one chooses to view it, either the current crop of Democratic front-running contenders is futilely engaged, or…one of them is destined to become the architect of a huge victory that breaks a long dry spell.

As I draw this post to a close, I am left with one bit of lingering curiosity. Are any of you affected at all, either drawn to or repelled by Obama, due to Oprah’s endorsement? She is a phenomenal person, capable of making a larger than life impact in some areas. Is your choice for President one of those areas?

I’m done; holla back!

Read my blog anytime by clicking the link: http://thesphinxofcharlotte.blogspot.com/, or by Googling thesphinxofcharlotte. A new post is published each Wednesday.


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