Break It Down!: Rick Santorum: The Next New Guy

It's time to Break It Down!

Welcome to 2012; year of the next Presidential Election. Of course, in the ten months and two days that separate us from the eventual polling day, there is the not so small matter of the Republican primaries and the End Game battle between the GOP nominee, whom I still believe will be Mitt Romney, and President Obama.

Last night, this intricate fan dance advanced to its logical next step; the Iowa Caucuses. Iowa, not particularly known as bellwether for national political preferences, saw that colossal political force known as Mike Huckabee win the largest percentage of Caucus votes in 2008, followed by the inimitable Massachusetts Mitt, who beat out that Republican staple, character actor (though apparently no Ronald Reagan), Fred Thompson. All these gentlemen finished ahead of the decorated military veteran, and U.S. Senator, who despite his Hawkeye State setback, went on to become the Party’s nominee. That was John McCain…in case you have forgotten.

With 97% of the votes tallied last night, Rick Santorum led Mitt Romney by slightly more than 100 votes. More later on the final outcome. Mr. Santorum is a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate, from Pennsylvania. While he will be the winner in Iowa when the dust settles, it is clear he is the next guy to catapult to the top or at least near the pinnacle of the GOP candidates’ Everest, 2012.

Let’s review, quickly. Out of the gate, Michele Bachmann won the IowaStraw Poll this summer, and became one of the early leaders, if not favorite. Almost before Ms. Bachmann could say “Rumpelstiltskin,” the thrill was gone, and her unlikely challenge to Mitt Romney was extinguished. Bachmann, a Tea Party fav, who virtually cast herself as the unofficial voice of the Tea Party, saw her run for the proverbial Brass Ring cut short when Texas Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy on the same day of the Straw Poll. He was almost immediately deemed the front runner, and this would be confirmed shortly by polling results. Good-bye Michele; we hardly knew you. The next Sarah Palin barely made it out of the gate.

It is one thing to be “deemed” the leader, even by pollsters, but quite another to live up to the title. Alas, after the onset of the GOP Debates, it was clear one thing that was simply not debatable was, to put it in SAT parlance, debates are to Rick Perry, as Kryptonite is to Superman. Anathema is not too strong a word. The Governor from Texas found more incredibly bizarre ways to diminish his standing, and potential voters’ confidence in him and his ability, each time out. He misstated facts, he lost what on the surface appeared to be winning arguments, and when it seemed he had no place to go but up, he bungled attempting to enumerate the three agencies of the Federal Government he would eliminate, when he could remember only two. Good-bye Rick, hello Herman.

I will not insult Herman Cain by suggesting his placement in the GOP mix was the GOP/Tea Party’s nod to Affirmative Action. After all, the contemporary GOP/Tea Party coalition is stridently opposed to the concept, even though, it was the Nixon Administration that adopted and applied the policy to private companies with federal contracts. But I digress. The real point here is Herman Cain seemed to come out of nowhere to take a stab at leading GOP Polling. Without question, a series of self-inflicted personal issues surfaced and prematurely ended not only Mr. Cain’s reign atop the polls, but his candidacy as well. What had been viewed as an initiative with historical implications morphed into Cain's odyssey becoming a mere footnote in Campaign 2012. So long Hermanator; hello Newt!

All things considered, Newt Gingrich’s rise to the top of the GOP Leader Board may have been one of the most unlikely events of the entire campaign season. The former House Speaker was plagued by a TripleCrown of faux pas; serial lapses in judgment or errors, including reports that he owed up to $500,000.00 to Tiffany’s in 2005 and 2006, his taking a vacation in

Greece

during the middle of the Campaign, and having his Campaign Manager and six senior advisers resign, allegedly, due to his decision-making. But candidate Gingrich did not falter, and when Herman Cain suspended his Campaign due to his personal travails, Newt was there to step in and be next to play the role of the Anti-Romney. But all good things come to an end, or at least so it appears when it comes to Republican front-runners. So it was with Newt Gingrich, as he failed to withstand the barrage of attack ads hurled at him by his erstwhile GOP colleagues. Adieu Newt; hello Dr. Paul.

In an almost shadowy manner, Ron Paul began to show up at the top of the charts in what has become nearly daily polling. Hark; just as quickly as he rolled in, his tide rolled out. He led in a few polls, but before he could be deemed the leader, he stalled just significantly enough to be overtaken. Bye-bye Ron; hello Rick…Santorum, that is.

We are just about up-to-date. Meet “Rick Santorum: The Next New Guy!” The Pennsylvania Senator may have the benefit of coming into his august position nearer the End Game than his predecessors. The tea leaves (not the Tea Party leaves) suggest Rick Perry is probably done. He is going back home to Texas to reflect on his next steps. Smart money suggests that translates into “I’m out!” Michele Bachmann gave what was tantamount to a concession speech…without quitting. Her poll numbers and Caucus finish leave every reason to think, if not now, soon!

The recalibrating of the playing field will certainly have an affect on the remaining candidates’ strategy moving forward. Up to this point, the GOP field has employed the old “Crabs in a barrel” approach to campaigning. Basically, this means, they have surveyed the landscape to see who leads, and then individually and collectively launched attacks, ad recently attack ads against the leader.

With that tableau in mind, there is a really good chance, win or lose in Iowa, Rick Santorum is about to feel the ire of at least Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Interestingly, Gingrich has positioned himself to play nice with Mr. Santorum. Presumably, that is because he is storing up his venom and vitriol to make sure his “phasers” are fully charged so he can open up a can of "whup-ass" on Mitt Romney, whom he feels treated him unfairly by targeting him with attack ads.

Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor, who effectively opted out of the Iowa field, is pointing to New Hampshire as the piece de resistance of this political theater. The irony here is Mitt Romney; former Massachusetts Governor (located next to New Hampshire) is expected to win comfortably in the Granite State. But hey, it’s his race to run.

Mr. Santorum gave what many (Republicans) consider a great speech to his supporters last night. The Hate Romney crew is especially averse to the idea of the Governor from Massachusetts advancing to be the Party’s nominee, and therefore excited about Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Paul, and now Santorum…in other words, anybody but Romney. Every one of the Great 8 substantive GOP candidates except Jon Huntsman has had a Warhol-like “15 minutes of Fame.” Of course the one thing that separates Huntsman from all the others is his Obama connection. In what he must surely view in retrospect as a bad idea, he served as President Obama’s Ambassador to China. Oh well, he will have lots of time to work on his Mandarin, which I have heard is already excellent.

In the final analysis, my gut says Romney will survive, and go on to face President Obama in the General Election. We will see soon enough whether “Rick Santorum: The Next New Guy” can take out Mitt Romney, the man most people, including me, expect to be the eventual GOP Club Leader. As of now, is official; after trailing virtually all night, Mitt Romney (30,015 votes) beat Rick Santorum (30,007 votes) by a total of 8 votes. On to New Hampshire.

As interesting factoids go, it is worth noting, the 8-vote difference is the narrowest margin ever for Republican Presidential Primary politics. Only one race in the history of American Presidential politics was closer; the 2008 Guam Primary, in which Senator Barack Obama defeated Senaror Hilary Clinton by 7 votes.

The official breakout of the last night’s Iowa Caucus vote is as follows:

Results for Iowa Republican Caucus (U.S. Presidential Primary)
Jan 03, 2012 (100% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney	30,015	24.6%
Rick Santorum	30,007	24.5%
Ron Paul	26,219	21.4%
Newt Gingrich	16,251	13.3%
Rick Perry	12,604	10.3%
Michele Bachmann	6,073	5%
Jon Huntsman	745	0.6%
Herman Cain	58	0%
Buddy Roemer	31	0%
No Preference	135	0.1%
Other	117	0.1%

I’m done; holla back!

Read my blog anytime by clicking the link: http://thesphinxofcharlotte.blogspot.com. A new post is published each Wednesday. For more detailed information on a variety of aspects relating to this post, consult the links below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Santorum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newt_Gingrich

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Cain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddy_Roemer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTNjhcyx7dM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_minutes_of_fame