Before I get started, allow me to interject, this post does not reflect anyone else’s data, research, or views; only my own, based upon my assessment and interpretation of contemporary current events.
Many Democrats, blinded by party loyalty, refuse to publicly prosecute the vulnerabilities…at least publicly, of Joe Biden. That’s not to say Republicans are more inclined to critique Donald Trump; they most certainly are not. But this post is not about Trump. This missive is an elocution on Biden and yesterday’s protest vote in the Michigan Democratic Primary.
First, let us note, President Biden is in the initial stages of a challenging re-election campaign. We always knew it would be. Full stop. In a big picture dynamic, there are those who will argue that Biden has labored under a mixed bag of self-inflicted wounds, bad luck, and circumstances beyond his direct control. Regardless of whether that is fair, the fact is, whoever sits in the Oval Office has the awesome responsibility of owning the spot where the proverbial buck stops. There are no ifs, no ands, no buts…simply put, no way around it, whatsoever.
The Democratic Party has a large, unwieldy, and loosely aligned coalition. It’s commonly known as a big tent. When things go well, it’s an impressive machine. At the end of the day, in 2020, it clicked. Joe Biden garnered over 81 million votes, the most in any U.S. Presidential Campaign, ever.
The election four years ago occurred during a global pandemic, amidst economic chaos, an education crisis, and supply chain disruption. The sitting President was actively promoting unorthodox and non-scientific remedies for the covid virus, had been impeached once, and was impeached again a week before his term expired. Oh yeah, the charge for his second impeachment was “incitement of insurrection.” Clearly, there was a significant wind filling Biden’s sails.
Every election stands on its own. 2024 brings with it its own specific challenges. For President Biden, that includes a weakening of support among several subsets of the Democratic coalition, including Blacks, Hispanics, Youth, progressives, and in Michigan especially, Moslem-American activists. Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib has led the charge in creating a campaign for Michiganders identifying as Democrats, to vote uncommitted, to send a message to President Biden. Tlaib, and Arab-Americans are angry about Biden’s support of Netanyahu and Israel in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East, arising from Hamas attacking Israel on October 7, 2023. The progressives want Biden to pressure the Israeli Prime Minister to cease and desist with the bombing campaign that has resulted in tens of thousands of Arabs, many of them children, being killed. More importantly, they also want a cessation of aid to Israel. The not-so-subtle messaging behind the campaign is to say to Biden, we are giving you a dress rehearsal, demonstrating what could happen in November, if you don’t meet our demands.
President Bident was declared the winner of last night’s Michigan Primary very early in the evening. However, winning was never in question. What was at issue was the number/percentage of people who would ultimately vote uncommitted. Tlaib set the modest goal of 10,000 votes as the floor. That number, which admittedly was a lowball figure, was quickly exceeded.
Here's the rub. Michigan, (along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) is a swing state, and was instrumental in determining the outcome of the 2020 Presidential race. It is expected to be pivotal again in 2024. The Moslem community went heavily for Biden in 2020. In a state he won by roughly 150,000 votes, Moslem-Americans voted him by approximately the same number of votes. That seems simple and straight-forward enough. But the fundamentals and context of the broader discourse is considerably more complex. As noted earlier, several of the constituencies in the Democratic coalition have seen their support of Biden soften, relative to what it was in 2020. Moslems are just one of them. He must be concerned about all of them.
As it relates to Tlaib and the progressives’ stated posture on a ceasefire, and discontinuing aid, there is a particular calculus that does not portend a favorable outcome. Another of the stated groups of the Democratic coalition are Jews. The odds that Biden, or any U.S. President would stop aid to our single most reliable ally in the Middle East is, in a word, zero! The President has even been reticent to publicly pressure Netanyahu to cease the bombing, and to the extent he’s implied it, Bibi has blown him off, and talked about not being a puppet of the U.S. Of course, the Prime Minister is a rightward leaning politician, and has maintained a less than enthusiastically supportive/positive posture with Democrats (See Barack Obama), so the President’s reluctance to go there is not surprising.
There are multiple dimensions of the playing field when it comes to resolving the dispute between Israel and Hamas. President Biden and his team have been immersed in trying to end the conflict. He was instrumental in reach the ceasefire that led to the earlier release of some hostages. Undoubtedly, he will continue to work diligently, moving forward. But if you take nothing else from this conversation, understand this: “Michigan Primary: The Horns of a Dilemma for Biden!”
I’m done; holla back!
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