The two major Party political conventions are
now in the rear view mirror. Last week,
Donald Trump received a 6-point bounce from the GOP Convention, which was held
in Cleveland the previous week, and he surged ahead of Hillary Clinton
according to a CNN/ORC
Poll.
Whether in a head-to-head matchup between the
two candidates, or in a four-way matchup that included the Green Party
candidate, Jill Stein, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, Trump led. One-on-one with Mrs. Clinton, Trump’s lead
was 48% to 45%. When the other two candidates
were entered into the equation, the lead was 44% to 39% in favor of Trump, with
Johnson garnering 9% and Stein 3%.
This week, following the Democratic Convention
in Philadelphia, Clinton received a similar bounce, 7 points to be exact, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. As a result, this week she
surged back ahead. Just as with Trump
the previous week, Clinton leads in both a head-to-head matchup with Trump, as
well as in the four-way scenario, including Stein and Johnson. When looking just at Clinton and Trump, she
leads 52% to 43%. In a four-way
scenario, it’s Clinton leading 45% to 37%, with Johnson and Stein at 9% and 5%,
respectively.
Coming out of the conventions the tempo of election
season will ratchet up, possibly sharply.
If anything is clear about this election year, it’s not typical. To be fair, each Presidential campaign is
unique in its own right. But this year…that
is true on steroids. While both
candidates approach November’s election with historic negatives, only 34% view
Mrs. Clinton as honest and trustworthy, while Mr. Trump tops that with a
whopping 35%, I think most observers, whether supporters or detractors, see
Donald Trump as the most unusual candidate in our life time. I have not even heard anyone suggest anyone
as a close second.
A key aspect of this point of view is both the
folks who are for him, as well as those who oppose him agree this is true. It is the underlying foundation of why this
is so that results in disagreement. His
surrogates argue, and his supporters seem to concur, that Trump is bringing a
robust sense of self, and a limitless confidence that though we are broken as a
nation, he can and will fix us. In fact,
he boasted at the GOP Convention that he is the only one capable of pulling off
this amazing feat. Quite naturally, the
candidate endorses this characterization of himself.
Alternately, his detractors view Trump as
divisive, dangerous, and delusional, and many are effusive in saying that is
the case. It is far from surprising that
Democrats as a group take the latter view.
One would anticipate that Republicans as a group embrace the former
view, and many do, especially rank and file voters. However, that explicit factoid does not cloud
an obvious caveat. There is a clear and
possibly widening breach within the Grand Old Party. This is not a new development. A number of Trump’s 16 vanquished competitors
tried to paint him as everything from not being a conservative to in more than
a few instances, not even being a Republican.
For his part, Mr. Trump has repeatedly found
ways to bring discomfort to and elicit disdain from members of his own
Party. He debased most of his Primary
competitors, he declared Senator John McCain was not a war hero…ostensibly,
because he was captured, and, after the Democratic Convention, he took on Khizr
and Ghazala Khan, the parents of U.S. Army Captain Humayun Khan. Captain Khan, an American citizen of
Pakistani heritage was born in the United Arab Emirates. He moved to the United
States with his parents when he was two years old, and was killed June 8, 2004
during Operation Iraqi
Freedom.
By attacking honored members of the group known
as American Gold Star families, Mr. Trump
effectively abandoned his Build a Wall platform plank and instead channeled a
version of Ronald Reagan when he uttered the phrase, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down
this wall.” Trump crossed a line that
some in the military consider sacrosanct, and that even many of his erstwhile
GOP cronies consider, a bridge too far. In
doing so, he tore down the wall of partisanship that usually delineates
Republicans and Democrats during Presidential Campaigns. A number of Republicans issued statements
supporting the Khans, and several went further and denounced Trump. My own observation is denunciation without
rescinding endorsements is a vacuous endeavor, signifying they either didn’t
really stand behind the verbal wrist slap they are giving Trump, and they still
really fervently support him, or…they no longer support Trump, but do not find
it politically tenable to say that in clear and unequivocal terms.
Gold Star
families are families that have lost a loved one in a war. Mr. Khan, who spoke at the Democratic
National Convention, took exception to Donald Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims
from entering the United States. He
wondered aloud if Trump had ever read the Constitution, and offered to loan him
his own copy. He opined that Trump has
sacrificed nothing, nor anyone. In turn,
Trump, who fancies himself a counter puncher took a day or two to respond, but
Saturday he did, and he has barely stopped since then.
He questioned
whether Mr. Khan wrote his own speech, or if the Clinton Campaign penned it, he
argued that he has sacrificed…by creating thousands, actually tens of thousands
of jobs, appearing to equate employing people with the Khan’s having lost a
son. He also rhetorically asked if there
was a reason Mrs. Khan didn’t speak, after which he suggested that perhaps she
wasn’t allowed to do so. Most Americans
outside Team Trump understood this to be a direct swipe at Mrs. Khan’s Muslim
faith. Mr. Trump and everyone related to
his campaign disavowed that view.
Republicans
were already generally beside themselves because Democrats were able to usurp
several of the GOP’s pet themes, including love of country and support for the
military. Trump’s reflexive pushback
against a Gold Star family escalated their concern to near
hyperventilation. The depth to which key
members of the Party could no longer restrain themselves was evident as Party
luminaries, including John McCain, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell spoke out in
support of the Khans, and some cases offered scathing rebuttals of Trump’s
sentiments. By yesterday, a number of
high-ranking Republicans declared they would be voting for Mrs. Clinton.
According to
NPR, Senator McCain issued the most comprehensive statement, nearly 700 words,
in which he drew a bright red line delineating Trump and his comments from the
Republican Party. He said:
"I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not
represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates."
Senator McCain
also called upon Trump to set a better example, warned that Arizona is
watching, thanked the Khans for immigrating to America, and assured them their
son’s service and sacrifice will never be forgotten.
Senator
McConnell, according to Politico, offered a subtler, more tempered
response. He said:
“Captain Khan was an American hero, and like all
Americans, I’m grateful for the sacrifices that selfless young men like Capt.
Khan and their families have made in the war on terror. All Americans should value the patriotic
service of the patriots who volunteer to selflessly defend us in the armed
services."
Speaker Ryan, as reported
by Reuters News Sunday, made a terse, but poignant statement on the
situation. Speaking of Captain Khan, he
said:
“His
sacrifice – and that of Khizr and Ghazala Khan – should always be honored.
Period.”
Yesterday, Mr.
Trump announced that he would not be endorsing Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
and Senator John McCain in their pending Primary Election bids. Just a day earlier he gave a shout out to
Ryan’s competitor in the upcoming Wisconsin Primary, Paul Nehlen. CNN reported that in Ryan’s case Mr. Trump
said:
"I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country.
We need very strong leadership. We need very, very strong leadership. And I'm
just not quite there yet. I'm not quite there yet,"
The last
sentence approximates a phrase Mr. Ryan used shortly after Trump had vanquished
the field of 16, and was the last man standing among GOP candidates for
President. He did not immediately
endorse Trump. Ryan did eventually
endorse the nominee.
In Senator
McCain’s case, as referenced above, he and Trump have clashed dating back to
early in the campaign. In explaining his
position on not endorsing the Senator, Trump said:
"I’ve
never been there with John McCain because I've always felt that he should have
done a much better job for the vets."
Fortunately
for Senator McConnell, he is not up for re-election. As such, he does not have to spend any time
contemplating a Trump endorsement, or lack thereof. It is worth noting, Ryan and McCain are
expected to prevail in their primary races.
Last night
one of Trump’s surrogates attempted to deflect (I think it’s called a pivot in
campaign parlance) from the resultant raging firestorm by blaming the death of
Captain Khan on decisions made by President Obama and Secretary Clinton. Katrina Pierson, who frequently appears on
CNN to defend Candidate Trump made the following claim to Wolf Blitzer:
“It was under Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that changed the
rules of engagements that probably cost his life! So I don’t understand why
it’s so hard to understand why Donald Trump was confused.”
There is a lot
going on with those two sentences, so it is easy to understand why she was
confused. That assertion is, in and of
itself, an extraordinary claim. More
importantly, in the final analysis, it is a clear sign of a surrogate, who like
her candidate, spoke in an overhyped, underprepared manner.
Mr. Trump, Ms.
Pierson, and a host of Trump acolytes have raised conspiracy theories to a near
art form. This claim would require one
incredibly otherworldly conspiracy. Why
is that, you may ask? I’m glad you
inquired!
As cited
previously, Captain Khan was killed in Iraq, June 8, 2004. On that date, history reflects the
Commander-in-Chief was George W. Bush, and the Secretary of State was Colin
Powell. Fact check complete; bye
Felicia…I mean Katrina.
It has been a
tough week for the Republican nominee.
However, the campaign is long and new and unpredictable events impose
themselves on the process frequently. To
that end, this too shall pass. Until it
does though, it is appropriate, if not essential, to take note of, “The GOP: A Party at Odds With Its Leader!”
I’m done; holla
back!
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