After a three week hiatus during which I wrote
about guns, Cuba, and basketball, I am pivoting and redirecting today’s post
back to the Party of Lincoln and its rather interesting, if not unique effort
to determine the GOP nominee for President.
In previous posts the topic of the rift between Donald Trump and the
Republican establishment was explored. A
number of developments sprang forward, including a series of initiatives
broadly referred to as the Stop Trump movement; also known as the Anti-Trump
movement, and the Never Trump movement.
These names are all various strands of a central theme, one centered
upon the efforts of a number of Republicans and other so-called conservatives
to stymie the current front-runner, Donald Trump, and his
efforts to secure the Party’s nomination at the Convention in Cleveland for the
2016 U.S.
Presidential election.
Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015. On the outside looking in it appeared that
for the rest of last year and the first couple of months of 2016 Republicans
largely viewed the New York Real Estate Magnet and former Reality TV Host as a
fleeting nuisance, whose prospects were sharply delimited by a predefined
ceiling of 25-30% of voters, and who would garner even fewer votes as the
number of candidates winnowed from 17 down to a handful of less. All that sounded good. Then the field narrowed; currently it’s down
to three. The movement, if you want to
call it that, received a turbo jolt of energy following Mr. Trump’s wins in the
March 15, 2016 Super Tuesday primaries,
the most substantial of which was thrashing U.S. Senator
Marco Rubio in Florida. That defeat instantly ended the Rubio
Campaign.
At that point,
the Establishment, unquestionably, had seen enough. Four weeks ago I framed it as no so much a
failing of the Party to nurture, develop, and support better, smarter, more
well-prepared candidates, but instead, a function of millions of voters
expressing their preference for the Donald.
It will be interesting to see, if the Never Trump movement is successful,
and if it is, whether that outcome will create a schism between the will of the
establishment and the desires of the Party faithful.
In that
previous post I mentioned the Mitt Romney personal broadside initiative to
derail Trump’s momentum. Since that time
a number of his former rivals, including Carly Fiorina and Senator Lindsey
Graham, have coalesced and joined forces with Ted Cruz, all in an effort to
stop that inimitable force that Donald Trump has surprisingly proved to be. Senator Graham, who upon exiting the race
himself, initially endorsed Jeb Bush, was so off put by Senator Cruz that he
likened choosing between Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz as akin to a death
sentence. In precise terms, he framed it
thusly:
"It's like being shot or poisoned. What does it really matter?"
This was in
response to being asked which of the two he preferred. Arguably, this was just a dose of the
seemingly casual folksy Palmetto State jargon that Graham is known for
delivering. Perhaps it was, but he
didn’t stop there. He went on to
characterize Mr. Trump as “The most unprepared person I’ve ever met to be
commander-in-chief,” and said of Senator Cruz, “He’s exhibited behavior in his
time in the Senate that make it impossible for me to believe that he could
bring this country together.”
Of course in
just a few weeks, Jeb Bush had himself suspended his own campaign. That naturally meant Graham had to choose
another would be standard-bearer.
Ultimately, it appears he decided he’d rather be poisoned than shot.
As time
marches on and the Primary Season continues, the saga continues. This week a number of Republicans, some of
them key Party figures, are either contemplating skipping, or have already
decided they are not attending the GOP Convention in Cleveland. In fact yesterday when former Florida
Governor and 2016 GOP Presidential Candidate Jeb Bush was asked whether he’d
attend, he told a CNN reporter “No.”
New Hampshire
Senator Kelly Ayotte is in the midst of a tough bid to secure a second
term. She was asked if she would be in
Cleveland. Her response, while not
absolute, betrayed a clear lean. She
said:
“Unlikely, I’ve got a lot of work to do in New Hampshire, I have
my own re- election and I’m going to be focusing on my voters in New
Hampshire.”
Here in The
Old North State, another such dynamic has emerged. North Carolina Senator Richard Burr has made
his priorities clear. Speaking about
convention attendance, he had this to say:
“I’m up for re-election.
I’m more valuable outside of Cleveland than inside of Cleveland.”
While Senators
Ayotte and Burr are weighing the implications of challenging campaigns as they
contemplate the Calculus of whether to attend the Convention, Jeb Bush is free
of such concerns, and yet he seems to have already kicked the Cleveland Confab
to the proverbial curb. In other words
the Never Trump movement and the Cruz brand of inviolable conservatism are seen
as equally uncool. Both those in tough
swing state elections, as well as those who actually believe there is still
currency in the ideal of negotiation, collaboration, and bi-partisan governance
are viewing the Party’s National Convention with a jaundiced eye.
By all
accounts, there are GOPers among the highest rungs of the Party’s leadership
encouraging rank-and-file members to stay the “aitch” away from Cleveland. You’d have thought the Secret Service hadn’t
intervened and the Right Wing gun-lovers were actually going to be strapped up
in that joint. One top level Party
Official, speaking to CNN after having been granted anonymity, admitted that he
advised his colleagues to hold campaign rallies and town halls in their home
states and districts during the convention in July. A senior Senate aide echoed that idea.
Skipping
conventions is not unheard of, especially by moderates who wish to show some
daylight between themselves and a nominee who might alienate their supporters
at home. That’s fair, but it’s worth
noting even members of the edge leaning Tea Party plan to stay home in July. Representative Rick Mulvaney, a co-founder of
the conservative House Freedom Caucus has said after discussing the matter with
about 20 conservatives recently, about half agreed with him and plan to skip
Cleveland. As he put it:
“Let the activists, let the people decide (who the nominee will
be, rather than the politicians). I’ve
decided not to go to Cleveland. I’m
going to stay at home and work.”
One senior
House Republican leadership aide also told CNN they are hearing that several
members have drawn their own conclusions that it behooves them to stay home and
tend to their own elections. That aide
said explicitly:
“I think if you are in a competitive
district that’s smart.”
Let’s face it
the GOP has a lot going on right now. On
top of that, there has been and undercurrent of ambient noise surrounding a
Draft Paul Ryan initiative. The
rumblings became so significant that Representative Ryan, the Speaker of the
House, attempted to quell them yesterday by giving his own version of the
Lyndon Johnson recusal, “I will not seek, nor will I accept my Party’s
nomination. The Speaker said:
“Let me be clear, I do not want, nor will I accept, the
nomination of our Party.”
It sounded
good, even convincing unless you fell in one of two categories. One, those who desperately want the Speaker
to play the role of White Knight and come to the rescue, and the other, folks
who remember when he said virtually the same thing about the Speakership. In other words, time will tell. There are advantages to not entering the fray
before one has to do so.
I’m done; holla
back!
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