As a casual observer of the
American body politic, and a fascinated on-looker of what on it’s face appears
to be one of the most rambunctious political season in recent memory, I am
increasingly amazed that my initial characterization of the so-called Trump
phenomenon continues to resonate as on point.
In mid-June when Trump announced his Presidential Campaign and
immediately began denigrating Mexicans, he was rewarded by quickly rocketing to
the top of the charts so to speak, as far as GOP poll numbers are concerned. It was about that time I predicted that this
guy might just shock the world and go on to capture the GOP Nomination.
That was then, and it was
early. Most of my friends discounted my
assessment as just my normal tendency to expect the worst of evils to prevail
in political contests (because too many folks cede to apathy and opt out of
voting). If my friends provided a
counterbalance with a personal touch, based on their own insights about me, the
professional pundit class offered the objective and expert opinion that Mr.
Trump’s soaring arc of popularity was just a fleeting matter that would soon
come to an end.
That is what they said after
he deemed Mexicans raping marauders.
They were wrong. That is what
they said when he said Senator John McCain was not a war hero. They were wrong. That is what they said when he broadcast
Senator Lindsey Graham’s cell phone number on live TV. They were wrong. That is what they said when he, without
documentation or authentication, claimed he saw thousands of Muslims cheering
in New Jersey after 9/11. They were
wrong. That is what they said when he
had a Hispanic journalist removed from one of his rallies. They were wrong. That is what they said when he placed second
in the Iowa Caucuses after having led in the polls right up to the day of the
Caucuses. They were wrong.
I could go on, but I think
you get the point. After failing to win
the Iowa Caucuses, where he finished second, Donald Trump has rebounded by
winning the next three states, including two Primaries, and one set of
Caucuses. There are many ways to frame
this, and the candidates undoubtedly do that more creatively than I ever could.
In Iowa, Marco Rubio, who
finished third, responded with a series of news conferences and media spots
that led Ted Cruz to point out the misplaced self-promotion and ensuing
media adulation bestowed upon the third place finisher, while, in his view,
ignoring the winner (himself).
But this GOP-i-fied new math was not only a factor in Iowa. Last night Ted Cruz finished third in Nevada
and all but declared victory. He boasted
that Cruz was the only name of a candidate not named Trump that has won any
state in the GOP campaign to date. True,
but, so what? I suppose turnabout is fair play, that's what.
An interesting thing has
happened as the GOP contest unfolds. All
those folks who have been so consistently wrong about the projection of a soon
to be faltering Donald trump includes the Party Establishment. I’m not a Republican, and I while I may not
be the most astute of political observers…I am still a political observer.
What have I observed? Alexander Pope said, “Hope springs eternal in
the human breast.” I have seen
Republicans hope against hope that Trump’s star would fade. Time marches on; now there are those whom, no
longer content to merely hope, are poised to take matters into their own hands
and try to alter the operational dynamics of the Party’s multiple campaigns. For weeks now, there have been rumblings that
the field must narrow in order to promote a redistribution of voters to
candidates other than DJ Trump. A large
swath of conventional wisdom has held for some time, that if candidates drop
out, their votes will go to one of the establishment candidates, e.g., Bush, Cruz,
Kasich, or Rubio.
The problem with
conventional wisdom frequently is, very often it proves not to be particularly
wise. Take this conversation for
example. In the last couple of weeks,
several GOP candidates have dropped out of the race, including Carly Fiorina, Chris
Christie, and Jeb Bush. Conventional
wisdom, at least as practiced by all those folks who urged those candidates to
get out so the remaining candidates could contain Trump, got an unceremonious
comeuppance last night. The GOP field, which
stands at just more than a third of its original number, was greeted by some
stunning metrics last night.
Absent roughly 10
candidates, Trump’s numbers didn’t weaken; they strengthened. The punditry has loudly and frequently
repeated the trope that Trump was only able to garner 25% to 30% of the
vote. They insisted that when the field
narrowed, the traditional candidates would emerge stronger and Trump would subsequently
fade.
Earlier this week, Trump scoffed
at that notion and declared that he would get his share of those voters. Score one for the Donald. Nevada may or may not be like anywhere else,
but it’s fair to say, they showed Donald Trump the love. In the Nevada Caucuses, he earned 45% of the
vote. So much for 25% to 30%. In fact, he didn’t just outperform the
artificial ceiling placed upon him by the pundit class he smashed the measuring
stick. His numbers, well over 40%,
approached those of Rubio and Cruz combined, both of whom finished in the 20’s.
Let me be clear, the race
for the GOP Presidential Nomination is by no means over. While I’m giving them a fair amount of grief,
the pundits and experts still have an opportunity to be right. But make no mistake about it, the clock is
running and Trump continues to defy the odds.
The next plank in the conventional wisdom theories holds that for Trump
to be headed, either Cruz or Rubio must exit the race. Key races are approaching. There is reason to believe Cruz could, if not
should, win Texas, where he is a sitting Senator. Likewise, Rubio has a shot in Florida, where
he serves as a Senator. Super Tuesday is
around the corner, just six days away.
The GOP Establishment appears to be leaning toward Rubio, instead of the
often irascible, even to his own Party, Cruz.
I write all that to say, the
fun is just getting started. However, if
the GOP Establishment doesn’t get a handle on it’s Trump “problem,” which
admittedly, his supporters view in a quite different light, they will have to
come to grips with an undeniably victorious Donald Trump, whose best quote from
last night’s speech was, as he noted the demographics he won, said, “We won
with the poorly educated; I love the poorly educated.”
I bet he does! But I’m going to leave that right there,
because as easy as it may be to take off on that, he won lots of demographics,
included the well educated, but perhaps most notably, the Latino
population. I’m just gonna leave that
there for you to cogitate upon.
That’s about it. Four contests are in the books. “Act IV, Scene I: Nevadans Bet Big on Trump!”
I’m done; holla back!
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