The very high profile and discordant GOP
stalemate appears to be coming to a merciful end; the dispute nearly over. Maybe!
A few weeks ago, in the midst of Pope Francis’ American
DC-NY-PA Tour, House Speaker John Boehner underwent an epiphany and announced
he would resign from his Speakership, and retire from Congress. At that moment, it appeared Kevin McCarthy,
House Majority Leader, was most likely to pursue the Speaker’s position.
Indeed, he had Speaker Boehner’s blessing and
endorsement. It should be noted, that
was always going to be problematic for McCarthy. Boehner had become a less than popular leader,
especially among the ultra conservative wing of the GOP, which includes the Tea
Party element.
As if the onus of being close to the Speaker
were not enough, in a Truth Serum-like induced moment of candor, Mr. McCarthy
admitted in a Fox News interview that he was part of a Benghazi probe that had
resulted in deflating Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers. Oops!
Quicker than a magician could say abracadabra,
Representative McCarthy’s SNAFU ascended to a top-tier Twitter trending item,
and part of a continuous loop in the 24-hour news cycle. Can you say liability? In a matter of days Mr. McCarthy evolved from
a candidate who hoped to survive a spirited and contested battle for the
Speakership to someone who lost all hope.
He entered a meeting at which a vote on the matter was expected, and left,
having taken himself out of the running.
On some level it was not a surprising move; yet
it was totally unexpected. He had given no indication he would recuse himself
from running. In some ways, it was a
most artful sleight. It allowed him to
proactively disengage from what was sure to be a figurative intra-Party OK
Corral kind of gymnastic. Score one for
the Kev.
As much as his “Smooth Operator” move made
matters less complicated for him in the long run, and less contentious for the
GOP in the short term, the tactic further roiled the waters for the Party,
which at its core needed to get on with the business of electing a New Speaker,
and complicated Mr. Boehner’s level of duress.
After all, he hopes to gavel to a close his final meeting by October
31st.
Almost immediately after McCarthy’s exit, a
Draft Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan movement emerged in full bore. There had been some level of interest in his
becoming a candidate for the post, all along.
His advocates, whom, represent various elements of the Party largely
agree that he is one of the few, if not the only person whom, at this time,
could persuade the requisite number of House colleagues to coalesce around and
elect a candidate.
From the outset, Paul Ryan navigated the
ensuing process in an arm’s length fashion.
By most accounts, the job (Speaker of the House) is one he did not want,
and in fact opted not to seek. There are
a number of reasons for this, including, the nature of the job called for, from
his perspective:
-
Too much travel
-
Too much fundraising
-
Too much jousting and in fighting
Ryan is currently Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. He assumed the Chairmanship in January of this
year. Prior to that, he spent four years
as Chairman of the House Budget Committee.
The Committee on Ways and Means has a wide range of oversight and
responsibilities. The Committee on
Budget is also the kind of high-level policy-heavy assignment that Ryan
considers right in his wheel well. He is
a policy wonk that wants to reform the tax code, and would ideally like to take
a crack at running for President. He was
on the ticket as Mitt Romney’s choice for Vice President in 2012.
The Committee
on Ways and Means is the chief tax-writing
committee
of the United States
House of Representatives. Members of the Ways and Means Committee
are not allowed to serve on any other House Committees unless they apply for a
waiver from their party's congressional leadership. The Committee has
jurisdiction over all taxation,
tariffs, and other
revenue-raising measures, as well as a number of other programs including:
• Enforcement of child support laws
The U.S. Constitution requires
that all bills regarding taxation must originate in the House of
Representatives. Since House procedure is that all bills regarding taxation
must go through this committee, the committee is very influential, as is its
Senate counterpart, the U.S. Senate
Committee on Finance.
The U.S.
House Committee on the Budget, commonly known as the House Budget
Committee, is a standing
committee of the United States
House of Representatives. Its responsibilities include legislative
oversight of the federal budget process, reviewing all bills and resolutions on
the budget, and monitoring agencies and programs funded outside of the
budgetary process.
Last night, Mr. Ryan took the first step toward
what Republicans, at least the group that considers itself of the mainstream
variety hopes will be the beginning of the end of the Speaker selection
impasse. At first blush, it seems
promising. But the contemporary
Republican Party is almost not one Party in the traditional sense.
Ryan, understanding just what he is working
with laid out a series of caveats that the Party must accept, in order for him to “reluctantly” take the job. The gist of those points his colleagues must
agree to include the following:
·
He
must receive the support of all three groups inside the House Republican
conference: the House Freedom Caucus, the Republican Study Committee and the
moderate Tuesday Group.
·
He
wants changes to House rules made as a team -- a major demand of the House
Freedom Caucus; he wants to make it harder to overthrow a sitting speaker.
·
He
wants a better work-life balance than out-going House Speaker John Boehner had.
·
He
also emphasized the importance of unified support for the next speaker. Ryan told his colleagues he is willing to
take "arrows in the chest but not in the back," a GOP source inside
the meeting told CNN.
Ryan closed
his remarks by adding, should the conference agree to his stipulations, "I
am happy and willing to get to work." He went on to say, “I hope it doesn’t sound conditional, but it is.” According to members inside the room. He
paused after saying the word “conditional,” for effect.
In explaining his insistence on the
aforementioned terms of engagement, Ryan said, “This is not a job I ever sought; this is not a
job I ever wanted. I came to the
conclusion that this was a dire moment.”
Observers close to the process also weighed
in. Peter King (R-NY) by most accounts a
moderate, said, “If Paul Ryan
can’t unite us, no one can. Who else is out there? That’d be a sign of utter dysfunction, total
madness.”
Ryan’s allies
say his conditions for becoming speaker are likely to include an understanding
that he would have a free hand to lead without a constant fear of mutinous
reprisals. One, Peter Wehner, a former
adviser to President George W. Bush, said Ryan wants House conservatives to
make clear that they would not seek to “cripple him” from the start.
Wehner added,
“He doesn’t have a moral obligation to get Republicans out of the rubble
they’ve created for themselves. Asking
for their goodwill is completely reasonable.”
Perhaps the most challenging element for Ryan
to get his arms around, and to whip or coerce, or coddle into line is the group
known as the Freedom Caucus. This is a group of hardline Republicans who
were not enamored with Speaker Boehner, and who tried to unseat him on a number
of occasions.
In the initial stages of the group’s existence,
which came to power in 2011, after the Tea Party swept a number of 2010 midterm
election, the focus was primarily on reducing government spending. Latter day emphases have included specific
targets such as Planned Parenthood, and its
funding. But as
time wears on, it is increasingly clear that what the Freedom Caucus wants more than specific legislation
is power.
The clock is ticking, and the brinksmanship,
while interesting in a sociological kind of way, is a totally counterproductive
endeavor. We will soon see if the
Representative from Wisconsin’s First Congressional District has constructed an
acceptable path forward, via “Ryan’sRules: Demands, Conditions, Stipulations…Pick the Semantic of Your Choice!”
I’m done; holla back!
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