Almost since 11:18 p.m. on
November 6th, when the 2012 Presidential Election was called for
President Obama, a chief trending issue on social, electronic, and in print
media has been the inimitable Fiscal Cliff.
It is the be-all-end-all topic in virtually all things news related.
No surprisingly, given the
great partisan divide that splits the country nearly in half, there are many
different spins on this crisis, and its relative gravity. It has been called manufactured. Various members of both the political and the
pundit class have insisted the cliff is not a cliff at all, but rather a hill,
or even a gentle slope. In fact, several
noted observers have actually suggested the parties should not rush to make a
bad deal, but should instead; choose to go over the cliff…or slope, or hill, or
whatever one opts to call it.
One school of thought maintains the President is trying to back Republicans in a corner, and that he is
loathe to negotiate, because he thinks he has some kind of tactical
advantage. In response, many proponents
of this theory argue that Republicans should eschew any deal proposed by the
President, and as a result, force the country over the cliff. This would effectively “kick the can down theroad,” and put the debate in the hands of the next Congress. See Newt Gingrich.
An alternative school of
thought counters that for any sense of mandate the President has, just because
he won the election, is countered by the fact that Republicans retained the
House, by a wide majority. Those who
make this argument content the voters who supported them endowed their
Representatives with just as much of a mandate to act on their convictions, and
presumably, more importantly, the convictions of those who voted for them, as
does the President.
Another school of thought
asserts that President Obama is intentionally working to force the country over
the Fiscal Cliff. Grover Norquist, he of
the “No Tax Pledge” (Remember that?)notoriety is a chief advocate of this notion.
Yet another school of
thought (There are more, but I will end with this one), holds that the
President ran on the precept of increasing taxes for the wealthy; he won the
Popular vote, as well as the Electoral College vote, and therefore, he won that
argument. In addition, to buttress this
position, data from numerous separate polls show that a majority of Americans
favor increasing taxes for the wealthy, and that most Americans also will blame
intransigent Republicans rather than the President, if we go over the Fiscal
Cliff. A sampling of these results
includes the following:
·
In a June 9 ABC
News poll, 61% of Americans believe higher taxes will be necessary to
reduce the deficit, and 57% of those polled said that deficit reduction should
include both tax increases and spending cuts.
·
A Pew
poll found that more people blame the nation’s involvement in wars than tax
cuts or spending for the deficit. The
poll also found wide support for increasing taxes, as 67% said that more high
earners income should be subject to being taxed for Social Security and 66%
support raising taxes on incomes over $250,000 and 62% support closing
corporate tax loopholes.
·
A Bloomberg poll
taken in May found that only 33% of those surveyed thought that it would be
possible to lower the deficit without raising taxes, 64% expressed the belief
that it isn’t possible to lower the deficit without raising taxes.
·
An
April CBS
News/NY Times poll showed that 72% of people favored raising taxes on the
wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.
A March NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 81% of those
surveyed would support a tax on millionaires that would be used for deficit
reduction, and 68% supported eliminating the Bush tax cuts on those who make
over $250,000.
·
A
Washington Post/Pew Research Center survey
by a 53%-27% margin, said
Congressional Republicans will be more to blame than President Obama if there
is no deal to avert the Fiscal Cliff; 12% said both sides should be blamed
equally. Among Independents, 52% would
blame Republicans and 21% would point to the President.
·
A
CNN/ORC International survey
released last week indicated more
Americans would blame the GOP in Congress (45%) than President Obama (34%) if
the Fiscal Cliff avoidance provisions do not go into effect until next year.
So, President Obama won the
election. The American people have
expressed their preferences, before and after the election for what the
President refers to as a balanced approach; one that employs spending cuts and
revenue to avert the Fiscal Cliff. The
question of the hour is WWOD, or for you non-religious types, What Will Obama
Do?
Most observers, friends and
foes alike are apt to opine that in past instances, when faced with
rubber-meets-the-road negotiation episodes, including, his initiative to close the
prison facility at Guantanamo, pushing for a larger Stimulus Bill, framing
comprehensive Healthcare Reform, opposing the extension of the Bush tax cuts in 2010, reaching a Grand Bargain to prevent the country’s default, and pursuing
Immigration Reform legislation, President Obama blinked.
Don’t get it twisted. As Vice President Biden enunciated the meme
so successfully during the campaign, Osama bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive. This President has had his
moments. Still, I choose to not to view
the President through the lens of a sycophant; rather by using the same
standard Mr. Obama himself uses for seeking and developing an appropriate
schematic for averting the Fiscal Cliff, a balanced approach. There is no doubt President Obama has built an
impressive list of accomplishments, including the 10 below:
1. Passed Health Care Reform: After five presidents over a century failed to
create universal health insurance, signed the Affordable Care Act (2010). It
will cover 32 million uninsured Americans beginning in 2014 and mandates a
suite of experimental measures to cut health care cost growth, the number one
cause of America
2. Passed the Stimulus: Signed $787 billion American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act in 2009 to spur economic growth amid greatest recession since
the Great Depression. Weeks after stimulus went into effect, unemployment
claims began to subside. Twelve months later, the private sector began
producing more jobs than it was losing, and it has continued to do so for
twenty-three straight months, creating a total of nearly 3.7 million new
private-sector jobs.
4. Ended the War in Iraq : Ordered all U.S.
5. Began Drawdown of War in Afghanistan : From a peak of 101,000 troops in June 2011, U.S.
6. Eliminated Osama bin Laden: In 2011, ordered special forces raid of secret
compound in Abbottabad , Pakistan
7. Turned Around U.S.
8. Recapitalized Banks: In the midst of financial crisis, approved
controversial Treasury Department plan to lure private capital into the
country’s largest banks via “stress tests” of their balance sheets and a
public-private fund to buy their "toxic assets." Got banks back on their feet
at essentially zero cost to the government.
9. Repealed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: Ended 1990s-era restriction and formalized new
policy allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military for the first
time.
10. Toppled Moammar Gaddafi: In March 2011, joined a coalition of European and
Arab governments in military action, including air power and naval blockade,
against Gaddafi regime to defend Libyan civilians and support rebel troops.
Gaddafi’s forty-two-year rule ended when the dictator was overthrown and killed
by rebels on October 20, 2011. No American lives were lost.
It is a strong list, and including it is certainly
fair. Moreover, that is a short list; he
has many more accomplishments. However, the
balance part of the equation requires the inclusion and consideration of the
instances, referenced earlier, in which as a negotiator, the President
acquitted himself, and his core constituency, less than effectively. One might argue, he has “Cultivated a Culture
of Capitulation.” It’s totally fair to
ask, Will President Obama
Cave
With a just under four weeks until the deadline,
and more important, only 10 days until Congress is scheduled to go on holiday break, the proverbial hourglass is winding down.
In the midst of the constant spin, counter spin, evaluation, and assessment,
it is still too early to predict with precision exactly what the POTUS will
do. However, I have a hunch!
I have long believed that President Obama, an
avid sports enthusiast, navigated his first term with a second term in
mind. Similar to a football or
basketball coach who may employ first half strategies and tactics to set up the
second half, I think the President accepted some compromises with the mindset
that to achieve his broader objectives, he needed to serve two terms, and to
get to term two, it would be necessary to first survive term one, then advance. That mission was accomplished November 6th.
Now, in term two, with no future elections on the horizon, he has the opportunity to reach higher.
To that end, I suspect that while he realizes, in a divided government,
negotiation will be a requisite reality, his resolve will be more firm,
and he will pursue more persistently those designs and ends that he believes represent
the best interest of the people of the United
States of America
This brings us full circle, back to the opening
premise and question: “Cultivating a Culture of Capitulation: Will President Obama Cave(Again)?” To be sure, one instance of
holding firm to one’s principles is insufficient evidence of a culture
shift. But, as is often said, a journey
of a thousand miles begins with the first step.
If President Obama is to turn this reputational conundrum around, he
must first start somewhere. I believe that
somewhere is here…and now!
I’m done; holla back!
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