By now, you know former Chairman and CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, and former Chairman of the Board of Directors to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Herman Cain, won the past weekend’s Florida GOP Straw Poll for Presidential candidates. The fact that he won was surprising; that it was a proverbial landslide must be consider shocking.
Why? Leading up to the contest, the anointed and virtually unanimous front runners expected to battle for, and ultimately clinch the Party’s nomination were either Rick Perry, or Mitt Romney. Conventional wisdom was that one of them would prevail in the
People who really watch closely things political will affirm that straw polling is about as far from science as the earth is from the sun. But be that as it may, I have spent s fair amount of time over the past 5 days discussing what Cain’s unexpected win does and/or does not mean. Given the relationship, or lack thereof, between straw polling and science, that I have already suggested, I admit, any time spent on the endeavor was too much. But Labor Day has come and gone; the political season is here in earnest. This is a fall sport.
News commentators, political analysts, and the man and woman on the street have weighed in on Cain’s big win. Many of them are questioning whether this will enliven his campaign, result in bringing in more money, and ultimately catapult him into the top tier of candidates who will vie to be the last man (or woman) standing. And if he is not the last standing, perhaps he can be someone who will be a factor in determining who is; translation, at least discussed as the Nominee’s choice for Vice President.
In the hot white afterglow of what must surely have been a satisfying triumph, anything is possible, or must seem so from the eyes of those who view Mr. Cain as the man they would like to succeed President Obama, or even Vice President Biden. Consider me an unreformed skeptic.
First, it is important to recognize the need to place and keep the Florida Straw Poll in its proper context. I would begin by asking, who won the
Still not convinced? I understand, and of course, I have other factors you might consider more compelling fodder. The Florida Straw Poll was one of 4 GOP Straw Polls during the month of September. Let’s take a look at all of them, and identify the top 3 finishers in each:
- Cincinnati Tea Party Straw Poll/September 12th – Pre-Debate: Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann – Post-Debate: Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain (CNN has not released final figures for the poll)
As you can see, Ron Paul won two of the four Polls, but failed to finish in the top 3 in the other two. Governor Romney finished first in one, failed to “show” in one, and finished 3rd in the other two. Mr. Cain finished first Saturday in Florida , third in Michigan and Post-debate Cincinnati , and did not make the top three in California , or Pre-Debate Cincinnati Michigan reflected garnering only 8.5% of the votes, and his failure to make the top 3 in California , Florida
Actually, a potentially more telling factoid about the GOP’s September Straw Polls is that, the leader of most National Polls for the last month, Rick Perry did not win any of them. With Mrs. Bachmann flat-lining, perhaps the Tea Party really is conflicted between Perry and Cain. By most media accounts, one factor in the ascendancy of Cain, vis-à-vis Perry, is his relatively strong showing in the Debates, from a Tea Party perspective.
Speaking of keeping the Florida Straw Poll in proper context, keep in mind, GOP 2012 Straw Polling did not begin in Florida
· New Hampshire
· Washington , DC
· Phoenix Tea Party Straw Polls/February 27th – On-Site: Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul – Online: Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin – Combined: Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin
· Oregon – Dorchester Conference Straw Poll/March 6th – Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin
· Washington , DC
· Sacramento Republican Liberty
· York County , SC – South Carolina
· Camp Hill , PA (Harrisburg ) PA Pennsylvania
· Charleston County
· GA 3rd Congressional District Convention Straw Poll/April 16th – Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee
· Columbia , SC – South Carolina
· New Orleans , Louisiana
· Clay County , Iowa
· Ohio
· Iowa
· New Hampshire
· Georgia State
So, there have been twenty-one Straw Polls to date, more than two per month on average, through September, Governor Romney has won 4 (New Hampshire, Washington, DC – National League of Cities, Ohio, and Michigan), Mr. Cain has won 5 (Phoenix, Pennsylvania, Florida, and 2 in Georgia, and glory be, Dr. Ron Paul has won 7 (Washington, DC – CPAC, Sacramento, New Orleans, Clay County, Iowa, New Hampshire Young Republicans, Cincinnati, and California, fully one-third of the contests to date. Interestingly, I have not heard the Congressman’s name bandied about as a threat to become our next President.
There are two more GOP Straw Polls scheduled; October 7-9, in Washington , DC
I am no Nostradamus of course, and I definitely have no special insight into the minds of those persons who affiliate strongly with the ideals espoused by the Tea Party Movement. Still, I am compelled to believe that the Florida
The GOP pack launched a trench warfare campaign against Governors Romney and Perry, the perceived favorites, based upon the odds. Those attacks caused both to dip in the polls, but, Governor Perry’s average-to-poor performance in a series of debates, a format he largely evaded, as Governor, seem to have placed him at a serious disadvantage. The combination of his performance on stage, with a number of not so appealing (to Tea Party members) positions appears to have removed the bloom from the rose, so to speak. Of course, there are still two Straw Polls left…and then Primary Season awaits the candidates who survive.
So, as I review the results of the Florida Straw Poll, my cautionary advisory is this; “Raising Cain: Don’t Bet On It!”
I’m done; holla back!
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