Monday’s first in the nation Iowa Caucuses officially kicked off
the transition of the 2016 Presidential Election Season from simply
campaigning, debating, and polling to actual voting; the crux of any
election. Moving forward between now and
November I will almost certainly not frame every weekly post around politics,
or the campaigns. I will, however, write
about it regularly, probably at least once a month, sometimes more.
It is still early, so I will not overwhelm with today’s blog. I do want to establish some broad
strokes. I’ve touched upon most of the
key players, including all the candidates in each Party, on more than one
occasion. Today I want to talk a little
bit about winners and losers, and note a few anecdotes that I’ve seen and/or
heard in the wake of the first wave of voting.
First, politics is a bottom line kind of game. While there may be several rounds before the
grand finale, when you get to the bottom line, especially in Presidential
Primaries, wherein there is only one winner per each of the two primary
parties, bottom line translates into win…or go home.
Under those broadly stated guidelines, without question, the
biggest loser Monday evening was Democrat Martin O’Malley. Despite spending more time in Iowa than his
competitors, he failed to garner even 1% of the votes cast. Based upon his failure to build and grow a
candidacy that resonated with Democratic voters, Mr. O’Malley, Maryland’s 61st
Governor, and always the odd man out since the race on the Democratic side
winnowed down into a 3-person slate, cashed in his chips, suspended his
Campaign, and went home. For him,
winning, if he chooses to fight again, will have to wait for another day, time
and place. I wish you all the best
Governor O’Malley.
Next in the arena of biggest losers, in my humble opinion, of
course, is Mike Huckabee, Arkansas’ 44th Governor. Huckabee actually won the GOP Iowa Caucuses
in 2008. Perhaps his tepid showing by
comparison in 2016 makes him the biggest loser.
However, that was eight years ago, which is an eternity in political
years. Given his almost unimaginably low
votes, I’m still content to give the Title to O’Malley. But don’t be misled; Governor Huckabee did
not make any enormous waves. He amassed
a whopping 1.8% of Republican Caucus voters.
That was, however 3 times the percentage Governor O’Malley attracted.
I’m not going profile all twelve GOP candidates. However, since I’m talking about losers, I
fell compelled to mention briefly that Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, and Jim
Gilmore are all still in the race, though they actually captured fewer votes
than Governor Huckabee. Without making
any predictions, I’ll just say that factoid does not bode well for the
prospects of their longevity on the campaign trail. Check back after New Hampshire.
After Martin O’Malley and Mike Huckabee, there is one other
candidate that has to be mentioned in any discussion of biggest political
losers following the first voting of the season. A year ago, or even this past summer, most
so-called experts everywhere would have insisted that any conversation about
GOP favorites to claim the Party’s nomination would have to include Jeb
Bush. While I’m not sure anyone went so
far as to plan a Coronation for the legatee of the Bush political legacy,
surely many, if not most thought it.
In sports metaphors, there is a well-worn phrase; “That’s why you
play the games.” Without question, the
2016 Campaign, up to and including the Iowa Caucuses proved to be the classic
exemplar of why polling and subsequent voting are critical in establishing the
contemporary pecking order for candidates.
Mr. Bush, the son of President George Herbert Walker Bush, and the
brother of President George W. Bush, was thought before the season ensued to be
head and shoulders above the competition.
On paper he was ”ginormous,” reportedly amassing more than $100 million
for his campaign. It is growing more
likely each day, political historians will look back on Bush’s campaign and say
why…or at least how…in the world did that happen?
This story really boils down to five candidates, three Republicans
and two Democrats…or, as technocrats will insist, one Democrat, and one
Democratic Socialist. On the GOP side,
Ted Cruz won, followed by Donald Trump, who was closely followed by Marco
Rubio. On the Democratic side Hillary
Clinton emerged ever so slightly ahead, in what many in the media, and Bernie
Sanders refer to as a virtual tie. Not
surprisingly, Mrs. Clinton calls it a win.
They both have a point.
According to the latest figures available, provided by the New York
Times, Clinton led Sanders by 4 votes, which translates to a difference of two
Delegates. They split the voting
percentage-wise 49.9 – 49.6, advantage Clinton.
Be advised, however, as I was writing this piece last night, Senator
Sanders had yet to concede. He
reportedly expressed concerns about how compiling and reporting voting was
handled in some Precincts. Without
trying to read the tealeaves on the question of where this matter will stand when
all the dust settles, I will suggest that on the opposite end of the spectrum
from the aforementioned biggest losers, Bernie Sanders was the biggest winner.
The self-avowed Democratic Socialist from Vermont has, in the early
going, positioned himself to shock the world.
He started with little money, sparse name recognition, and according to
virtually all the so-called experts, little chance against the high profile
well funded Clinton machine. His
non-traditional approach to politics, serving as an Independent, and describing
himself as a Democratic Socialist, did not help.
But, to steal a page from Van Jones, “Thanks Fox News. The media outlet, a path light for the
fervent right, inveighed daily for the last seven years and counting, against
President Obama calling him a Socialist.
In a sense, Fox News has anesthetized an entire generation of
Millennials to the negative connotation they intend to impute to the term
Socialist. Who knew that Sanders would
own the youth vote? Moreover, his supporters
that I know all emphasize that their guy is not accurately categorized unless
you place Democratic before Socialist.
By way of clarifying what he stands for, the Senator asserts he supports
the following items as the central thrust of his agenda:
1. Rebuilding Our Crumbling Infrastructure
2. Reversing Climate Change
3. Creating Worker Co-ops
4. Growing the Trade Union Movement
5. Raising the Minimum Wage
6. Pay Equity for Women Workers
7. Trade Policies that Benefit American Workers
8. Making College Affordable for All
9. Taking on Wall Street
10. Health Care as a Right for All
11. Protecting the Most Vulnerable Americans
12. Real Tax Reform
By the slimmest of Margins, Secretary Clinton won the Democratic
Iowa Caucuses. While Senator Sanders and
his supporters may not like or accept that, the Democratic Party machinery of
the State of Iowa has spoken…at least for now.
Clinton it is. While she was not
the biggest winner, she won, and I’m sure she’ll take it. She now moves on to New Hampshire, where
according to the polls she trails by as much as 23 points. There are lots of reasons, including
proximity to Vermont, the home turf factor, to believe that Sanders will win
there, whether his huge lead holds or not.
The test for Mrs. Clinton, and in a real sense for Mr. Sanders will come
as the contests move to more diverse states.
Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses. Clinton is expected to do better with certain
segments of the Obama coalition, particularly minorities. Sanders appears to have a lock on the youth
vote. While there are certainly others,
those are two of their biggest individual strengths. On the down side, the GOP will certainly try
to use the continuing email probe to suggest HRC is in jeopardy of going down
under the weight of an FBI investigation.
Meanwhile many in the Republican Party salivate at the thought of
running against Sanders the Socialist.
As with plusses, there will be others, but those are two of their most
readily visible negatives.
Back on the GOP side, Cruz finished in first place, but at least by
most media accounts, Rubio was the biggest winner. The Senator from Florida made up a lot of
ground, and as the highest establishment finisher in Monday’s voting, his third
place finish, one point behind Trump renders him emerging Golden Boy status…that
is, if you presume the GOP will actually come to its senses and default to an
establishment candidate as the Party’s nominee.
Donald J. Trump, D.J. Trump, as I like to refer to him, finished
second. There was a great deal of irony
in the self-proclaimed winner finishing second.
As a guy who dismissively spoke of finishing second not that long ago,
his having to embrace his place, at least in the ultimate Iowa scheme of things
was anything but cathartic for him, and undoubtedly totally refreshing for a
host of his detractors. In big picture
terms, just because of his own narrative, he was a loser Monday night. Not the biggest loser, but a loser
nonetheless.
Finally, Rafael Cruz won. He
overcame trailing in the polls, and in addition to trumping Trump’s lead in the
polls, and pushing back all the establishment candidates, he gets to breathe a
sigh of relief heading into New Hampshire.
He did not do so without invoking some level of controversy. He sent out at least two sets of mailers to
voters, one designed to shame individuals who didn’t plan to vote, and another
intimidating prospective voters with an official looking form with the words
Voting Violation included. His campaign
staff also reportedly told groups that Ben Carson was planning to leave the
race, ahead of the Caucuses. These acts
amount to dirty tricks in the best case, and potentially fraudulent behavior at
worse. This, ladies and gentlemen,
represents action by the campaign of your GOP winner, which he defends, I might
add.
Today, the Democrats still standing, Clinton and Sanders meet in a
Town Hall Meeting in New Hampshire…it’s about to get jiggy. “And They’re Off: One Down!”
I’m done; holla back!
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