In the early (pre-voting) stages of the 2016
Presidential Campaign, the Democratic and Republican Parties have moved on
noticeably different trajectories. The
Democrats started with five principal candidates:
· Hillary
Clinton
· Bernie
Sanders
· Martin
O’Malley
·
Lincoln Chaffee (Withdrawn)
·
Jim Webb (Withdrawn)
After the first Democratic Debate, two
candidates, Chaffee and Webb withdrew.
Neither registered a significant percentage in the polls, nor crafted a
message that resonated with Democratic voters.
Arguably, they did themselves, their would-be campaign financiers, and
the electorate a favor, albeit a tad late.
One might surmise, keen observers are wondering how long will it take
Mr. O’Malley to get this message.
Over on the GOP side of the ledger, a
fundamentally unexpected, but explainable phenomenon is unfolding. First the race started with a large number of
candidates who at least considered themselves serious threats to claim the
Party’s Nomination. And then there were
seventeen:
·
Donald
Trump
·
Jeb Bush
·
Scott
Walker (Withdrawn)
·
Ben
Carson
·
Mike
Huckabee
·
Ted Cruz
·
Marco
Rubio
·
Rand Paul
·
Chris
Christie
·
John
Kasich
·
Rick
Perry (Withdrawn)
·
Rick
Santorum
·
Bobby
Jindal (Withdrawn)
·
Carly
Fiorina
·
Lindsey
Graham
·
George
Pataki
·
Jim
Gilmore
At first blush, a quick glance at the list of
GOP contenders reveals a wealth of experience in politics. It includes Governors, former Governors,
Senators, former Senators, and conspicuously, three individuals who have never
been elected to any office.
Initially, handicappers applied conventional
wisdom to this race, and predicted Dr. Carson, Mrs. Fiorina, and Mr. Trump
(that’s just Alpha Order; nothing sinister) would soon lose their sizzle and
appeal to voters and quickly wind down their campaigns, bowing out
gracefully. Well, may not Mr. Trump.
That was initially. A funny thing happened to the race as polling
ensued. First, Mr. Trump, yes, the
Donald, he of Reality TV, and Casino fame, rocketed to the top of the charts. After the first Debate, Mrs. Fiorina quickly
moved up to the upper tier of GOP Candidates.
Then, in what now seems an inexorable evolutionary turn, Dr. Carson
gradually made his way to the front of the class…I mean, the top of the
polls. Just like that, the three
political neophytes found themselves running at or near the head of the pack.
After recalibrating the bases for the
projections (which tends to be necessary when you are wrong at every turn), the
prognosticators, political writers, talking heads, and handicappers re-spun
their collective narrative. Alas, this
was the election cycle when Republicans opted to turn the process on its ear
because they were disillusioned with politics as usual, and as result, fed up
with the usual politicians. But, we were
assured, this was just a passing fancy, and effectively the political silly
season, as Jeb Bush called the situation.
It would soon pass, he predicted, confidently.
That could still happen; but it might not. We are now less than a year from Election Day
2016, and roughly six weeks away from the Iowa Caucuses on February 1st. Already, a fair amount of heretofore conventional
wisdom is being cast in the never gonna happen category. That is to say, Jeb Bush who just a few
months ago was thought to be nearly a lock for “Nominee-in-waiting,” is now
view as the guy who displaced “W” as the least capable, and most unready for
Prime Time Bush. Who saw that coming?
So, while there is still time for the erstwhile
GOP Cognoscenti to act out its cream imitation, and rise to the top, a number
of operatives in GOP inner circles are getting a little nervous. They are, apparently, concerned that a guy
who gets his military intel from “the TV shows, a guy who asserts that the
pyramids were grain silos built by Joseph, and a woman whom one of those guys
claims drove her company into a disastrous tailspin, from which it still has not
recovered, are all at, or lurking near the top of GOP polls.
So, to counter this, we are hearing some in the
GOP brain trust have embrace a brilliant idea; Let’s go get Mitt. You remember Mitt, right? Just in case you don’t here’s a quick primer
to prick your memory.
During the dog days of the GOP 2012
Presidential Campaign, when Willard Mitt Romney was in the thick of it, he said
some interesting things. Among them:
1. On Fox News, the reason he did not talk about the troops -
“You don’t go through a
laundry list; you talk about the things you think are important.”
2. On NASCAR - mocking a group of fans wearing plastic
ponchos - “I like those
fancy raincoats you bought. Really sprung for the big bucks.” Also, trying to
everyman it, Romney said, “I have some great friends who are NASCAR team
owners.”
3. The infamous 47% comments – “There are 47 percent of the people
who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent
who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are
victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name
it. My job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they
should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.'’
4. On his disdain for social programs; not concerned about the very poor - “I’m not concerned about the very
poor. We have a safety net there.”
5. He earned a round of pants on fire fact checks
for falsely accusing Obama of apologizing for America, after being caught on
tape promising his wealthy donors that if there were an “opportunity”
like a hostage situation he would “take advantage of it”. - Romney
wrote in an email within hours of the attacks but embargoed until midnight so
as to avoid looking like he was taking advantage of a tragedy, “The Obama
administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic
missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.” Later he went on
about Obama’s imaginary apology tour, forgetting that it was he who had been
forced to apologize in Britain over the summer.
6. His Olympics gaffe, in which he suggested Britain was not prepared for the games -
“You know, it’s hard to know just how well it were turn out- will turn out.
There are a few things that were disconcerting, the stories about the- private
security firm not having enough people- the sup- supposed strike of the
immigration and customs officials, that obviously is not something which is
encouraging. Because in the games, there- there are three parts that makes
games successful.”
7. His rationalization for why his sons
were not fighting for
the country - “One of the ways my sons are showing support for our
nation is helping me get elected.”
8. Syria is Iran’s route to the sea - Romney said (again), “Syria is Iran’s .
. . route to the sea.”
9. Describing the withdrawal of
the troops from Iraq - “It is my
view that the withdrawal of all of our troops from Iraq by the end of this year
is an enormous mistake, and failing by the Obama administration. The
precipitous withdrawal is unfortunate – it’s more than unfortunate, I think
it’s tragic.”
10. The memorable binders full of women - “I went to a number of women’s
groups and said, “Can you help us find folks,” and they brought us whole binders
full of women.”
The Mitt 2012 era was so bad;
the Republican National Committee (RNC) convened and drafted a plan to make
sure they Party never-ever found itself in such a woeful position again. The head of the RNC put it this way:
“I don't think you can draw any quick conclusions other
than the fact that we lost and we know that.
But in order to get back in the game, you've got to look at and do a
full autopsy of what happened."
Mr. Priebus
noted that the Party would dive
deep into analysis of the election, and devise a
four-year game plan intended to ensure that they avoid the mistakes of
2012. At that time many Republicans called
for a “bigger tent” Party, one that will be more representative of our changing
demographics. I suppose they deduced
that among the reasons President Obama secured victory included winning among
these groups:
Women – 55%
Black – 93%
Hispanic – 67%
Asian – 73%
Jewish – 69%
Other – 57%
Age 18-29 – 60%
Age 30-44 – 52%
Unmarried – 67%
Self-Identified Gay
– 76%
Income Under $30,000
– 63%
Income $30,000 – $49,000
– 57%
Given the
numbers above, The Trump/Carson position on building a wall, and Mrs. Fiorina’s
attacks on Planned Parenthood do not appear to bode particularly well for
shoring up key areas in which the Party’s Flagship Team missed the boat in
2012. However, the GOP obviously devoted
a significant amount of mental capital to contemplating the return on
investment (or lack thereof) in the politics of hate, derision, and various
and sundry slurs. Now all they need to do is get their full complement
of players on board. Who knows; perhaps
this time around, Mr. Romney is that guy.
I doubt it!
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