There are numerous monikers ascribed to the unwieldy
array of candidates currently seeking the Republican nomination for
President. In its infinite wisdom Fox
News (FN), the entity sponsoring tomorrow night’s debate has, for all practical
purposes given the group a new name, “Ten.”
To be fair, the Republican National Committee did that when it
established the rules that would govern the Party’s debates, during the road to
selecting the GOP Nominee for the 2016 Presidential Race. FN, based on calculations using five National
Polls, simply identified which candidates made it into the Top 10 by 5:00 p.m.
yesterday.
This decision was based on collective Party
soul-searching after President Obama handed the GOP its second consecutive Presidential
loss in the 2012 Race for the White House, all while handily winning a number
of key demographics Republicans vowed to do better with in 2016. The Party Leaders concluded that its debates
leading to the 2012 Primary Season had been poorly staged, and as such
detracted from the GOP’s ability to come out of the debated fortified, unified,
and strategically prepared to take on the Democrats.
There are currently 17 declared GOP Candidates. According to FN, in a release after
yesterday’s deadline, the candidates qualifying for Thursday’s Prime Time event
are Donald Trump, Jeb
Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich. To
the continued surprise of most Americans, at least most Americans without Tea
Party, and/or ultra-Conservative leanings, Donald Trump leads, comfortably, the
cavalcade of proud, mostly pious patriots seeking the GOP’s Holy Grail.
Mr. Trump, an
avowed Birther, who seems to regularly admit that his principal qualification
for the job is that he, in his own words, is very rich. He has, however, promised to make America
“great again,” and that’s got to count for something. The Donald entered the campaign as someone
whom most thoughtful Republicans and Democrats alike, figured would have been
an afterthought in the dynamics of serious politics, such as claiming a place
on the main Debate Stage. That he is not
only among tomorrow night’s 10 Prime Time Players, but will claim Center Stage,
as the person with the highest cumulative polling numbers is perplexing and
frustrating for Republicans, the other candidates at least, and perplexing and
amusing to Democrats; candidates and voters.
Most of the
other GOP candidates have observed, suggested, or flat out complained that Mr.
Trump has taken virtually all the air out of the room, and left little, if any,
space, time, and most importantly, media coverage for them to articulate their “genuine/serious”
policy initiatives and proposals.
Instead, reporters seem consumed with the latest Trump gaffe, e.g.,
Mexicans are rapists, and Senator McCain is not a war hero, or favorite
refrain, “I’m very rich,” or which staffer he will, or will not fire today, or
issuing his favorite assertion…that this person or that person is a loser.
He does have a
lot of money, and as a result, campaign finance, a key harbinger for most other
candidates’ ability to stay in the race is a non-issue for him. A point he reiterates often, and with
relish. He is also an unconventional
campaigner. When he went to South
Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham’s home State, to campaign, he not only
launched a frontal assault on the Senator on his home turf, he released the
Senator’s personal cell phone number.
Senator Graham subsequently destroyed the phone, and played it off by
using the occasion to upgrade to a Smart Phone.
When the blog site Gawker later released Mr. Trump’s cell phone number,
he quickly changed the message on his answering machine to a campaign ad. This is just one example of how Trump
adroitly takes the negative energy that others, including candidates, attempt
to use against him, and transforms it into his advantage.
Conventional
wisdom holds that the Trump phenomenon is a mirage, and will eventually dissipate,
just as any number of poll leaders did in 2012.
It could still happen, but frankly I sense an increasing level of
concern among his GOP colleagues. At
least one has to feel that he displaced them as a member of tomorrow’s Top 10.
That same
erstwhile wisdom held from the outset that Jeb Bush would likely prevail as the
eventual GOP nominee. Mr. Bush doesn’t
have Trump’s money, but his PAC’s have raised nearly $100 million. Now all he has to do is improve his poll
numbers.
In several
polls, Mr. Trump leads him significantly, more than doubling his projected
numbers in a couple of them. Behind Mr. Trump,
and (former) Governor Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is 3rd,
polling at just a shade over 10%. No one
else, not even the seven additional candidates appearing at the Prime Time dais
tomorrow night, reached double digits.
Among the Top 10 finishers, the average poll numbers break out this way,
according to REAL CLEAR POLITICS:
·
Donald
Trump, 23.2 percent
·
Jeb
Bush, 12.8
·
Scott
Walker, 10.6
·
Ben
Carson, 6.6
·
Mike
Huckabee, 6.6
·
Ted
Cruz, 6.2
·
Marco
Rubio, 5.2
·
Rand
Paul, 4.8
·
Chris
Christie, 3.4
·
John
Kasich, 2.8
That leaves
Perry and the six other major declared candidates -- Rick Santorum, Bobby
Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Jim Gilmore -- to
appear together during a debate earlier tomorrow evening.
As for the
jayvee, excuse me, I mean the pre-Prime Time players; these seven luminaries
include one candidate who polled 2%.
Three of them polled 1%, but less than 1.5%. One polled 0.4%, and two did not register on
a numerical scale. They fell this
way:
·
Rick
Perry, 2.0
·
Rick
Santorum, 1.4
·
Bobby
Jindal, 1.2
·
Carly
Fiorina, 1.0
·
Lindsey
Graham, 0.4
·
George
Pataki, N/A
·
Jim
Gilmore N/A
In the initial
plan, there was going to be one debate.
Those who did not make the Top 10 were effectively going to be SOL. However, it became clear that the also-rans
would literally be a Who’s Who Among Elected and former Elected Officials, and
Business Moguls. Included were former
Governor Rick Perry, former Senator Rick Santorum, Governor Bobby Jindal,
Senator Lindsey Graham, former Governor George Pataki, and former Governor Jim
Gilmore…as well as the field’s only woman, Carly Fiorina, former Chief
Executive Officer at Hewlett-Packard, and the first woman to lead one of the
Top 20 U.S. companies. At that point, FN
blinked, deciding that it could not totally divest the process of that much
potential talent (on paper).
I have heard
several people say they normally do not watch Republican debates, but admitted
they were looking forward to the “Trump Show.”
I haven’t decided yet whether I will tune in. I must confess, at this point, I am not
leaning in that direction. While my best
guess is Mr. Trump will surprise with the degree to which he adheres to a
script, I just do not anticipate anything new emanating aside from the standard
anti-Obama rant. I get enough of that
daily.
So how did FN
work it’s magic formula to produce the results above? According to Fox News spokeswoman Irena
Briganti, they used five polls, including:
·
Bloomberg
·
CBS
News
·
Fox
News
·
Monmouth
University
·
Quinnipiac
University
According to
Fox, these were the most recent national polls from non-partisan, recognized
organizations. As a passing observation,
I find it interesting that they included Fox, but not CNN’s poll as a
non-partisan tool. IJS!
They used
standard methodology, live interviews, random digit-dial sampling techniques,
and included both landlines and cellphones.
Their GOP primary vote question mirrored the ballot by reading all
candidates names in random order and without honorifics, according to FN.
As the debate
cut-off period neared, several candidates pursued attention-grabbing strategies
with the hop of rising into the Top 10.
Almost all the candidates used national media appearances, even though
most had criticized national polls as having little to do with how they might
perform in New Hampshire and Iowa. Well,
so much for initial strategies. As Mike
Tyson was fond of saying, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the
mouth.”
We now know
that Donald Trump packs quite a punch.
If you intend to watch tomorrow, the prelims start early. However, if you are interested in the Big
Boy’s Match, remember… “And Then There Were 10: Let’sGet Ready to Rumble!”
I’m done; holla back!
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