The U.S. Census Bureau released a report a week ago today that revealed, among other things, that the white vote is diminishing in influence, as well as in raw numbers. As facts go, this single unit of data has multiple implications. Undoubtedly, reverberations from the resulting trend will be seen, heard, and felt across the political landscape.
Specific findings include:
- For the first time since 1996, when the Census
Bureau began collecting this data, whites voted at a lower rate (64.1 percent of eligible voters)
than blacks (66.2 percent of
eligible voters). Moreover, the
total number of white voters decreased by roughly 2 millions in 2012
as compared to 2008, the first
time since 1996 that a race
group has seen a diminution in
net votes cast. Add to that, in the
last five presidential elections, the white share of the electorate dipped
nine points, the Hispanic share
rose four points, and African American votes increased three percentage points.
- The Hispanic
community in the
- In every election since 1996, eligible voters have increased in numbers. That was true in 2012, but not by much.
In 2012, the total number
of votes cast was about 133
million. That represents an
increase over 2008 of roughly 1.8 million votes. That is the smallest increase in raw
votes in the last four elections.
An interesting phenomenon
is that gains by black voters (1.7 million more votes than in 2008) and Hispanics (1.4
million more votes than in 2008)
were offset by the decline in white voters (2 million fewer votes).
- President Obama dominated the youth vote in 2008, and again in 2012. However, it was not the President’s ability to get youth to vote in historic numbers, that carried the day, but his penchant for consolidating a substantial majority of youth votes into pro-Obama votes. Exit polling showed that voters 18-29 made up 18% and 19% of the electorate in 2008 and 2012, respectively. That is actually below the level the youth vote garnered in the 80’s, when it was typically 20% or more of the overall electorate. The Census Bureau found that for 2012, this segment actually comprised just 15% of the electorate. However, the President won 66% of votes among this age group in 2008, and 60% in 2012.
So, let us summarize the
crisis of the Grand Old Party:
Minorities, people of color
– Hispanic, black, Asian – gave 80 percent of their votes to President Obama. Minorities’ share of the electorate was only 26 percent in 2012; yet, minorities constitute 36.3 percent of the population.
Oh yeah, their share of both the electorate and the population is rising
inexorably.
President Obama captured only 39 percent of
the white vote in 2012; the lowest of
any victorious presidential candidate. Of
course, by carrying people of color 4
to 1, he did not need anymore.
In interpreting the mounting
array of intel found in the Census
Bureau’s treasure trove of statistics
chronicling what reads like the
decline of the Republican Party and Brand, there is impetus to pose a question.
Is there any good news for the GOP? Well, in fact, yes there is.
Consider the spike in African American turnout in 2008 and again in 2012. It is not difficult to
impute that the tremendous turnout of black
Americans was due to what some might call the Obama Factor. The President in 2012 was under ferocious attack and in danger of all out repudiation. As a result, black folks turned out to rescue
the first black President. This will not be
a dynamic of the 2016 race.
However, there is more bad
news for the GOP. Yes, the Hispanic
vote rose by 1.4 million between 2008 and 2012, even though 12
million eligible Hispanics did not
vote. Governor Romney lost the Hispanic
vote 71-27. If Democrats actually create a concerted and energized effort to get
out the Hispanic vote, the GOP will
fell the repercussions.
On 48 percent of Asians voted.
However, when they did vote, they went 70 percent Democratic. Asians’
voting numbers are also expanding; as more go to the polls, the difficulties
faced by the GOP continue to mount.
In the face of this series
of grave concerns, what is the Republican
response?
At least one group of the GOP brain trust, led by Senators Marco Rubio, John McCain,
and Lindsey Graham, are pushing for amnesty and a “path to citizenship” for the 11
to 12 million aliens in the country
today.
Who, exactly, are these
people? Perhaps half are Hispanic, but interestingly, 90 percent are people of color, who once
registered, vote 4-to-1 Democratic. In addition, each year a million new
immigrants enter and move
onto a fast track for citizenship.
Between 80 and 90 percent now come from Third Word, and once naturalized, they
vote 80 percent Democratic.
How did we get here? Richard
Nixon constructed a pathway to winning 49
states in 1972 and 1984, 44 states in 1980, and 40 in 1988. In four elections, 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004 – the Republican Party swept all 11 of FDR’s Solid South. These were the copious benefits of the Southern Strategy.
Then, conservatives urged Bush 1 to declare a moratorium on legal immigration, and build a security fence in 1992.
The erstwhile politically correct Republican
Establishment fought to keep the idea out of the platform.
What now? Eighteen
states, including four of the seven mega-states—California , New York , Illinois , and Pennsylvania Florida and Ohio Texas
In Ohio
Eight
years ago, blacks and whites voted at about the same rate in Ohio
From these Census figures, white folks are losing
interest in politics and voting. Still, whites still constitute three-fourths of the electorate and nine in 10 Republican
votes.
The very unconventional
gambit to embrace amnesty and a path
to citizenship for 12 million illegal aliens, led by Senator Rubio and Company may be a way to recalibrate
the dial and increase Republican
enthusiasm and turnout among three-fourths
of the electorate. Alternatively, is it really just a circuitous route to inciting a demand to
seal America
We are in search of answers
to that query and many others. Meanwhile, what we know is, “The White Vote is Disappearing: What Now?”
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