August 2, 2011; by all accounts, this date is the contemporary D-Day for gaining control of the finances of the
As always, there are many
polls that weigh in on the issue. One of
them, a recent USA Today/Gallup Poll
(taken Friday-Sunday, July 15-17) found that two-thirds of Americans want their Congressional
representatives to agree to a compromise plan on debt and budget deficit
negotiations. This, by the way, is in
direct contrast to the argument the GOP-Tea Party conservatives consistently make when they insist that the American people do not want compromise
(on this issue)!
The numerical breakdown of
the USA Today/Gallup Poll looked like
this:
·
66% of
respondents said agree to a compromise plan, even if it is a plan you disagree
with
·
27% of
respondents said hold out for the basic plan you want, even if debt ceiling is not raised by
the deadline
·
6%
expressed no opinion
·
Among Republicans, 57% said agree to a compromise plan
·
Among Republicans, 35% said hold out
·
Among Republicans, 8% expressed no opinion
·
Among Independents, 72% said agree to a compromise
·
Among Independents, 23% said hold out
·
Among Independents, 5% expressed no opinion
·
Among Democrats, 69% said agree to a compromise
·
Among Democrats, 26% said hold out
·
Among Democrats, 5% expressed no opinion
These results from this past
weekend emerged as the President and Congressional leaders continue to debate
the debt ceiling issue with the August 2nd
deadline rapidly approaching. With
that in mind, several points are worth enumerating, including:
1. Even a clear majority of Republicans favor a compromise
2. Only slightly more than 1 in 3 Republicans
expressed a desire to have their representatives to hold out
3. Less than 1 in
3 participants, overall, wanted representatives to hold out
4. Less than 1 in
4 Independents wanted
representatives to hold out
5. Nearly 7 in 10
Democrats favored compromise
6. More than 7 in
10 Independents favored
compromise
7. A higher percentage of Independents, than even Democrats,
favored compromise
In an effort to thwart President Obama’s efforts, a number of Conservatives are accusing the POTUS of deploying scare tactics, while
they in turn contend the August 2nd
deadline is not that big a deal. One Congressman, Joe Walsh, 8th
District in Illinois South Carolina
According to the USA Today/Gallup Poll referenced above, Americans, at least among respondents to
this poll, accept the President’s
version of the story on this one. On the
question of whether they believed an economic crisis would result if an
agreement is not reached by August 2nd,
the breakout of responses fell accordingly:
·
56% said
yes
·
40% said
no
·
4%
expressed no opinion
In a debate that has been
on-going in earnest for weeks now, there have been, as you might imagine, a
number of plans and proposals. President Obama, recognizing that the
level of heat and light that an Obama
Plan would attract from the GOP-T
Party element has resisted the urging of the Right to put “his” plan
on the table.
Instead, he introduced a
proposal that outlined a framework for developing a plan. His outline entailed a combination of budget
cuts, new revenues, and a revision of the TaxCode that would eliminate a variety of loopholes and increase taxes on the
wealthiest Americans. Not surprisingly, the idea was met with
pointed resistance by Republican
opponents, who have declared repeatedly that they would not support or vote for
any tax increases, which they add, includes the elimination of current
loopholes for wealthy individuals and corporations. Equally not surprising, the Left-leaning wing of the Democratic Party also panned the President for including Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare,
& Medicaid) among the list of items up for discussion.
Meanwhile, John Boehner, Speaker of the House, and MitchMcConnell, Senate Minority Leader,
respectively, took turns at pitching plans, neither of which has gained
sufficient traction (to date) to move the discussion to agreement. In fact, Eric Cantor, House Majority Leader,
and GOP Budget Impresario, along with the
conservative Republicans and the Tea Party were appalled by what they
viewed as straight-up capitulation by
Senator McConnell. Cantor
and Speaker Boehner moved quickly to
neutralize the Senate Minority Leader’s
pitch.
In a continuing effort to
gain an upper hand in the debate, the GOP-led
House of Representatives voted on an
approved the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act
yesterday. This legislation was
conceptualized based on another of those “Pledges”
I discussed last week. The Act has three principal components, as
its name implies:
- Cut - Substantial cuts in spending that will reduce
the deficit next year and thereafter.
- Cap - Enforceable
spending caps that will put federal spending on a path to a balanced
budget.
- Balance - Congressional passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution -- but only if it
includes both a spending limitation and a super-majority for raising
taxes, in addition to balancing revenues and expenses.
On another
front, also yesterday, the 2011
version of the Gang of Six (the 2009 edition worked on Healthcare legislation), a bi-partisan group of Senators (Democrats – Kent Conrad, North Dakota, Dick Durbin, Illinois, Mark Warner, Virginia, and Republicans
– Tom Coburn, Oklahoma, Mike Crapo, Idaho, Saxby Chambliss, Georgia)
formulated and proposed a deficit reduction plan that President Obama endorsed (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43807163/ns/politics-capitol_hill/). He called the plan “a very significant step” because Senators in his Party conceded the
”necessity of dealing with the
entitlement issue,“ while Republican
Senators acknowledged that “revenues
will have to be part of a balanced package that makes sure no one is
disproportionately hurt” from reducing budget deficits in the future.
House Majority Leader Cantor said of the proposal, “while
there are still portions that are unclear and need more detail, this bipartisan
plan does seem to include some constructive ideas to deal with our debt.” Not a ringing
endorsement, by any means, but also not the outright rejection virtually every
other thought on the subject garnering President Obama’s support has received.
Speaker
Boehner was less receptive, but also did not flatly reject the idea in totality. His office issued the following statement: “This plan shares many similarities with the framework
the Speaker discussed with the president, but also appears to fall short in
some important areas.”
A number of
factors may underlie these relatively less hostile reactions. A few examples include:
·
As
the deadline nears, the GOP may be
getting serious about actually negotiating
·
Good
old-fashioned partisan respect; half of the Gang
of Six is Republican
·
Their
arguments notwithstanding, it is conceivable that GOP solons read polling
data
too; they are hearing the hue and cry saying “negotiate”
Those are all
pertinent bases; any one of them, or all of them collectively could serve as
the rationale for changing tacks. However,
there is another matter that may have caught the attention of some GOP members. Last week was the Campaign Finance Reporting Division of the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) released 1st Quarter fund raising results for the 2012 Presidential Campaign.
Despite the constant attack politics aimed at stunting his effectiveness,
and crippling his Presidency, Mr. Obama raised a record $86 million (http://news.yahoo.com/obama-campaign-raises-86-mn-three-months-110851937.html). The result itself is astounding, on its
face. But when drilled down just a
little, a number of interesting, if not compelling points, surface, including:
- The amount, $86
million, more than doubled the $35
million collected by all the Republican
candidates; just over half ($18
million) of which was accounted for by Mitt Romney
- Over half a million donations, 552,462, were made
- 98% of the donations were for less than $250
- The average donation was $69
With almost two
weeks left, about the only thing certain about this process is that there will surely
be more drama. There are 13 days left until Debt Ceiling D-Day. By all
appearances, we are in the stretch run, although, in America
I’m done; holla back!
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