Break It Down!: August 2017

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Hurricane Harvey: Unprecedented and Fortuitously Timely

It's time to Break It Down!

Hurricane Harvey has ravaged southeastern Texas since last weekend. Its devastating consequences brought record-level wind, rain, and flooding to the Houston area. The storm eventually reached Category 4 status by the time it reached landfall. By Tuesday evening, rainfall, which had topped 50 inches, ceased and the sun shone through for the first time in several days. That was the good news. The bad news was, despite opening two dams to release the rapidly building water flow; area flooding had caused thousands to evacuate, and had contributed to at least nine deaths. As if that were not enough, after moving off the coast, the storm re-energized over the water, and is expected to approach land in the Houston area again.

Harvey is a tropical cyclone that is the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no hurricanes of Category 3 intensity or higher making landfall. Harvey is the first hurricane to hit Texas since Ike in 2008, and the strongest to make landfall in the state since Carla in 1961. It’s also the strongest in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Rita in 2005, and the strongest to make landfall in the Gulf area since Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Harvey joined Matthew (2016) as one of only two U.S. hurricanes to cause an extreme wind warning to be issued, indicating “tornado-like winds” within the storm, including isolated tornadoes. Harvey is also the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the contiguous United States, dropping a total of more than 50 inches of rain, surpassing the record set by Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978.

There are numerous plots and subplots stemming from Hurricane Harvey. Most are well chronicled during the evening news, in newspapers and magazines, and on cable news outlets 24/7, or thereabouts. The storm has uprooted thousands of people, and undoubtedly discomforted millions. The property damage estimates are already into the $billions. Every iota of coverage generated by the storm has been warranted.

Still, during the virtual avalanche of attention the storm had garnered, a few key items have largely receded into the background. Just for the record, here are ten issues worth simultaneously tracking, while you monitor Harvey:

1. Various Trump-Russia investigations (Don’t be fooled; there are 5)

2. North Korea’s continued missile testing and accompanying threats

3. Donald Trump, Jr. and his scheduled testimony on his Russian meeting

4. Paul Manafort

5. Subpoenas for Paul Manafort’s attorney and his current spokesman

6. Jared Kushner

7. Trump business sought to build a Trump Tower in Moscow

8. Transgender Troop Ban

9. GOP push to limit Mueller’s investigation to 6 months

10. Trump’s Charlottesville response

Unquestionably, Donald Trump and his supporters, surrogates, and spinners would like very much for you to forget about the items above. Don’t do it. I’m not suggesting you or anyone should downplay the devastation in Houston. In fact, I extend prayers and best wishes for all the residents of the state of Texas who were personally affected by, or who have family and or friends who were affected by Hurricane Harvey.

Having said that, I also believe it is worth noting in a more detailed way, the investigations referenced in item #1 above. Below are the 5 investigations, and their areas of emphasis:

Senate Intelligence:

Russia’s interference in the election
Collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia

Senate Judiciary:

The circumstances that led to national security adviser Michael Flynn’s dismissal
Leaks to the media

House Intelligence:

Russia’s interference in the election
Collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia
Leaks to the media

House Oversight:

Flynn’s contacts with Russian officials, including payments he received.

Special Counsel:

Any attempt to obstruct justice by Trump, or his allies
The Trump campaign’s ties to Russia
Russian meddling in the 2016 election
Possible financial crimes by Trump associates

Now let’s be clear. It is conceivably possible that all 5 of the aforementioned inquiries could result in finding that President Trump is as clean as the Board of Health. His right wing chorus has already acquitted him. They routinely and hyper-vigorously exclaim he is the victim of haters, left wing liberals, Democrats, the Main Stream Media, and the deep state. This, of course, is where I normally note, for example, that most of the so-called leaks occurred in his White House. You know, the one in which he has appointed all the staff and Councils…including those who’ve failed to make it eight full months; a list of at least 30 people, including the following:

· General Michael Flynn - National Security Advisor (resigned) – 22 days

· Sean Spicer – Press Secretary (resigned) – 182 days

· Anthony Scaramucci – Director of Communications (fired) – 10 days

· Reince Priebus – Chief of Staff (resigned) – 189 days

· Steve Bannon (mutual agreement) – 210 days

· Sebastian Gorka (unclear) – 217 days

· Carl Ichan (resigned) – 210 days

· White House Manufacturing Council (dissolved) – 201 days

· White House Economic Council (dissolved) – 201 days

· Denise Morrison – Advisory Council (resigned) – 201 days

· Inge Thulin – Advisory Council (resigned) 201 days

· Thea Lee – Advisory Council (resigned) 200 days

· Scott Paul – Advisory Council (resigned) 200 days

· Richard Trumka – Advisory Council (resigned) 200 days

· Kenneth C. Frazier – Advisory Council (resigned) – 199 days

· Kevin Plank – Advisory Council – (resigned) – 199 days

· Brian Krzanich – Advisory Council (resigned) – 199 days

· Derek Harvey National Security Council Advisor (fired) – 186 days

· Michael Short Assistant Press Secretary (resigned) – 186 days

· Walter Shaub Director Office of Government Ethics (resigned) – 180 days – (resigned)

· Robert Iger – Advisory Council (resigned) – 133 days (resigned)

· Elon Musk – Advisory Council (resigned) – 132 days

· Mike Dubke – Director of Communications (resigned) – 85 days

· K.T. McFarland – Deputy National Security Advisor (resigned) 117 days

· James Comey – FBI Director (fired) – 109 days

· Angela Reid – Chief Usher (fired) – 105 days

· Katie Walsh – Deputy White House Chief of Staff (resigned) – 69 days

· Craig Deare – National Security Council Senior Director (fired) – 26 days

· Travis Kalanick – Advisory Council (resigned) – 13 days

· Sally Yates – Acting Attorney General – fired – 10 days

As we watch while Texans battle the elements and fight to emerge from Hurricane Harvey, be reminded that hurricane season is just a little more than 60% over, and will remain with us until November 30^th. With that in mind, it’s even more important to retain focus, and keep your eye on the ball. I noted above that there is a GOP effort underway to sunset the Mueller Investigation at 6 months. Trump and his acolytes will try to deflect and if possible, even short-circuit the efforts to get to the bottom of any Trump shenanigans related to disrupting our election process. They, in effect, promote the notion of move along, nothing to see here. If that is actually true, allow the investigations, all of them, to continue unfettered. What better way to validate that theory?

At the end of the day, we are a democracy, and if we do not ensure that our elections are free and fair, what do we have left? Russia. We are better than that. Don’t fall for the okey-doke. “Hurricane Harvey: Unprecedented andFortuitously Timely!”

Holla back!

Read my blog anytime by clicking the link: http://thesphinxofcharlotte.com. Find a new post each Wednesday.

To subscribe, click on Follow in the bottom right hand corner of my Home Page at http://thesphinxofcharlotte.com; enter your e-mail address in the designated space, and click on “Sign me up.” Subsequent editions of “Break It Down” will be mailed to your in-box.

Consult the links below for more detailed information on a variety of aspects relating to this post:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump’s-business-sought-deal-on-a-trump-tower-in-moscow-while-he-ran-for-president/ar-AAqOjEs?li=BBnb7Kz

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/22/politics/north-korea-south-korea-us-military-exercise/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/trump-russia-investigations/?utm_term=.49bf181a2172

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/politics/trump-jr-russia-senate-testimony/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Kushner

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/politics/mueller-manafort-attorney-spokesman-subpoenas/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/29/ron-desantis-wants-to-shorten-probe-into-trump-russia-ties/612029001/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-transgender-idUSKCN1BA016

http://www.ydr.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/29/ron-desantis-wants-to-shorten-probe-into-trump-russia-ties/612029001/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-charlottesville-response-sinks-gop-130035915.html

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Obama Plays the Inexperience Card Redux

It’s time to “Break It Down!”

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY “BREAK IT DOWN!”

(Note: This is a Reprised and Amended Presentation of My Original Blog Post)

Today, in acknowledgement of the 10^th anniversary of “Break It Down,” As I have done occasionally in the past, I am revisiting my inaugural blog posting. Unlike in the past, I will augment the discussion, in light of having a new, also inexperienced President.

Tempus fugit (Time Flies)! Sunday marked another significant milestone in the life and development of “Break It Down!” I initiated this blog August 20, 2007, on a lark…almost a dare. That was ten years (and 529 editions) ago. Having related the story a number of times over the past several years, I will not repeat the complete details today.

I will note that on that summer’s eve, I contemplated and discussed, in five paragraphs, the experience, or in reality the lack thereof, of then Senator Barack Obama, as he navigated the early stages of his historic Presidential Campaign. The prodigious parameters of that history were not evident at the time. To be sure, over the next 14-½ months, he bested the odds and won not only the Democratic Nomination, but also the Presidency, not so unlike what Donald Trump did in 2015-16. In so doing, my lack of conviction, along with that of many others, in Mr. Obama’s ability to claim the nation’s biggest political prize, was exposed as a patently errant assessment.

I want to make one more note about the blog. In addition to this week marking the Tenth Anniversary of Break It Down, this week’s post commemorates the Five-year Anniversary of using WordPress as my primary Host Platform. The link, http://TheSphinxofCharlotte.com is simpler and more straightforward than the Blogger (Blogspot) link, http://TheSphinxofCharlotte.blogspot.com. The site design and presentation at Word Press is cleaner, and less busy than the one at Blogger. Please note, while I may migrate Break It Down exclusively to WordPress, the blog remains available at both sites for the foreseeable future.

So this was the message in Post #1, five brisk paragraphs and a sign-off:

In an apparent calculated act of derring-do, Obama declares the virtue of inexperience. Gotta love it! ;-)

Personal footnote of recollection: I recall Jimmy Carter running the "anti-Washington" (i.e., lack of Capitol Hill experience) campaign in '75-76. You know what, it worked.

The problem was, once JC sent all the reigning bureaucrats & policy wonks home, he was left with an assembly of newbies who didn't understand how to get things done in DC. The result was a very smart guy, genuine humanitarian, and erstwhile successful leader presided over a disastrous presidency, fraught with innumerable policy failures (see the Shah of Iran, double-digit inflation, & the outrageous Interest/Mortgage rate morass) and public relations gaffes (remember the killer rabbit, and the failed helicopter gambit).

Fortunately for him he was able to live long enough and subsequently do enough good deeds to distance himself from most of an unremarkable tenure as a one-term president, followed by a resounding defeat by that cowboy actor Teflon guy.

Of course none of that has anything to do with Obama...except in the unlikely even he prevails, let's hope he doesn't take that inexperience thing too far. As W constantly reminds us, getting to the White House is one thing (after all, he's done it twice), providing prudent and effective leadership once there is quite another.

'06!

Posted on Mon, Aug. 20, 2007

PS. Just for perspective, see a story the news carried on the subject that day:

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS DEBATE IN IOWA

Obama posits virtue of inexperience

What rivals criticize as naiveté, he presents as break from status quo

MIKE GLOVER

Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa --Democrat Barack Obama on Sunday tried to parlay his relative lack of national experience into a positive attribute, chiding his rivals for adhering to "conventional thinking" that led the country to war and has divided the country.

In their latest debate, the candidates also said they favored more federal action to address economic woes that have resulted from a housing slump and tighter credit. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson called the current financial crisis "the Katrina of the mortgage-lending industry."

Prodded by moderator George Stephanopoulos at the outset of the debate, Obama's rivals critiqued his recent comments on Pakistan and whether he would meet with foreign leaders -- including North Korea's head of state -- without conditions.

"To prepare for this debate I rode in the bumper cars at the state fair," the first-term senator from Illinois said to laughter and applause from the audience at Drake University.

The debate capped an intense week of politicking in Iowa, an early voting state in the process of picking a nominee. The Iowa State Fair is a magnet for White House hopefuls each presidential election.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., directly addressing a question about Obama's relative inexperience, said: "You're not going to have time in January of '09 to get ready for this job." Dodd has served in Congress for more than 30 years.

Former Sen. John Edwards said Obama's opinions "add something to this debate." But Edwards said politicians who aspire to be president should not talk about hypothetical solutions to serious problems.

"It effectively limits your options," Edwards said.

Obama said he could handle the rigors of international diplomacy and noted that many in the race, including Dodd, Edwards and Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Joe Biden, voted to authorize the Iraq war in 2002.

"Nobody had more experience than Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney and many of the people on this stage that authorized this war," Obama said. "And it indicates how we get into trouble when we engage in the sort of conventional thinking that has become the habit in Washington."

The debate, hosted and broadcast nationally by ABC, took place less than five months before Iowa caucus-goers begin the process of selecting the parties' presidential nominees.

As we reflect upon the Campaign of 2008 it really does harken the recognition of how swiftly time and events pass. Indeed, I am especially reminded of how a supremely confidently the Senator approached his moment. I shall always recall that it propelled me to write, "Obama Plays the Inexperience Card!" Needless to say, he has gained an enormous amount of experience in the intervening years.

As I wrap this up in 2017, it is with an entirely new vantage point, and a completely different appreciation for what an inexperienced Barack Obama brought to his job, vis-à-vis what an inexperienced Donald Trump is currently bringing to the job. Mr. Obama inherited a fragile country with a downward spiraling economy, a nearly double-digit employment rate, and a foreboding 700,000 job losses per month. By the time he left 8 years later, the unemployment rate had been halved, to less than 5%, the country enjoyed the longest period of consecutive job gains, 75 months, in history, over 11 million jobs had been added, including 1.2 million in his last 6 months in office, while the Dow Jones rose from a slumping 7,949 when he took office to 19, 887 when he exited. While no President controls every single lever that triggers all that happens during his tenure, when things go south, he occupies the space where the proverbial buck stops. Conversely, when things trend rosy, he gets a fair amount of the shine.

In that light, Mr. Trump entered office in a much different environment, benefiting from what can rightfully be called the Obama Recovery. Let’s be clear. There is definitely still work to do. But anyone who suggests that Obama didn’t bequeath more and better than he inherited is full of bovine excrement. Full stop!

With that said, these are the salad days of the Trump Administration. It must be said he has delighted his base. At least the ones with whom I have spoken believe he’s the cat’s meow, and they say (whether they believe it or not) he’s been doing exactly what they hoped for when they voted for him. I would suggest that anyone who didn’t vote him, or support him, or who is undecided about supporting him, should let that sink in for a moment or two, or twenty.

Team Trump contends Democrats, liberals, the Main Stream Media, and some nebulous ill-defined entity referred to as the deep state, are solely responsible for all that has stymied or delayed even potential successes by the Trump Administration. So, health care, travel ban (or whatever appellation one cares to affix to it), Transgender Military Policy, Charlottesville Messaging, the Obama wire tapping claim, the Flynn firing, the Comey firing, the Spicer firing, the Priebus firing, the Scaramucci firing, the Bannon firing, and oh by the way dare I say, his tweets…Can we really blame all that on the Party that holds a minority in both houses, or a media that has no votes, and presumably no say in who Trump hires in the first place, or fires for that matter, or on the deep state, whatever the Sam Hill that is?

If you are a Trump trooper, you can, and you most certainly do. If you are not, then you probably think such an assertion is sheer lunacy on its face. Perhaps…just maybe, he is finding difficulty gaining traction because he is not only fighting through an experience deficit, but he is operating with a startling lack of curiosity, matched only by an overabundance of hubris. All things considered, I am inclined to look back on the time when I wrote, “Obama Plays the Inexperience Card Redux,” and conclude that we (who should be a grateful nation) were considerably better served than with the current inexperienced occupant of the Oval Office.

I’m done; holla back!

Read my blog anytime by clicking the link: http://thesphinxofcharlotte.com. Find a new post each Wednesday.